Time to normalize expectations for Nvidia after unprecedented hypergrowth: Cleo Capital

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) has delivered one of the most extraordinary growth runs in corporate history. But Sarah Kunst of Cleo Capital thinks it may be time for investors to recalibrate expectations.

Speaking after Jensen Huang’s GTC conference, where he extended and raised a previous forecast for AI infrastructure spending, Kunst put it this way:

“Just $1 trillion between friends. We have been grappling with that when it comes to Jensen and Nvidia for a while. What they did over the last five or seven years is unprecedented and we have to come back to earth a little and say, this is one of the longest tenured, most respected CEOs. The company is doing incredibly well. For the broader market maybe we don’t want to see the hyper growth spend because those are dollars coming out of other companies and going into Nvidia. So maybe it is ok to slowly let the air out and just grow at a normal growth stage.”

Nvidia just closed fiscal 2026 with $215.94 billion in revenue, up 65.47% year over year, and $96.58 billion in free cash flow. Q4 alone printed $68.13 billion in revenue, up 73.2% year over year, with Data Center revenue hitting $62.31 billion and Networking up 263%. These are not the numbers of a company in trouble.

But Kunst’s point is not about trouble. It is about math and market dynamics. When one company is the primary destination for a trillion dollars in capital spending, every dollar flowing to Nvidia is a dollar not compounding elsewhere. The broader market has a genuine interest in seeing that spending pace moderate.

The growth deceleration story is already unfolding. Year-over-year revenue growth ran at 69.2% in Q1, decelerated to 55.6% in Q2, recovered to 62.5% in Q3, then reaccelerated to 73.2% in Q4. The base comparisons get harder from here, and Q1 FY2027 guidance of approximately $78 billion explicitly excludes any Data Center compute revenue from China due to regulatory uncertainty.

Supply chain risks are also lurking. The conflict in Iran threatens access to helium and sulfuric acid, both critical inputs to chip manufacturing. WTI crude sat at $64.51 per barrel as of February 2026, well below crisis levels, but the risk vector is real.

Analysts still see significant upside, with a consensus price target of $267.54 against a current price of $181.93. The stock trades at a forward P/E of around 23x, which is not stretched if growth normalizes into the 20-30% range. According to analysts, the bull case does not require hypergrowth forever — it just requires Nvidia to remain the essential infrastructure layer for the AI era, which the Blackwell and Vera Rubin roadmaps suggest it intends to do.

Kunst is not calling a top. She is calling for perspective. After five years of 1,333% gains, the question for markets is whether sustainable dominance at a normalized growth rate is enough — and the Blackwell and Vera Rubin roadmaps suggest Nvidia intends to remain the essential infrastructure layer for the AI era.