Pfizer Could Hit $36 by Year-End as Analysts See 2-to-1 Payoff on Key Prostate Cancer Trial

Pfizer (NYSE:PFE | PFE Price Prediction) has quietly built momentum in 2026, with shares up 6.61% year-to-date and 2.70% over the past year. The stock is currently trading near $26.84 but remains well below its 52-week high of $27.94. Wall Street consensus sits at a cautious average price target of $28.14, reflecting a predominantly Hold posture across 28 analyst ratings.

Against that backdrop, Guggenheim stands out: The firm today raised its price target from $35 to $36 while reiterating a Buy rating, implying significant upside from current levels, well above the Street consensus of $28.14. But can PFE realistically reach $36 by year-end?

Guggenheim’s $36 PFE Prediction

Guggenheim’s thesis rests on a binary catalyst: Topline data from Pfizer’s MEVPRO-1 Phase 3 trial of mevrometostat in second-line and later metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) is expected to read out in the second half of 2026. The risk/reward is asymmetric in the bull’s favor: Guggenheim sees approximately $2 per share of potential upside on a successful readout versus roughly $1 of downside on failure. That 2-to-1 payoff profile, layered on an already-recovering core business, makes this a closely watched setup heading into the second half of 2026.

Key Drivers of PFE Stock Performance

1. Oncology momentum: Pfizer’s oncology segment generated $4.435 billion in Q4 2025, up 9% year-over-year, with Padcev up 15%, Lorbrena up 46%, and oncology biosimilars up 77%. A MEVPRO-1 win would extend this runway into the next decade, adding a new prostate cancer franchise to an already growing portfolio.
2. Non-COVID base business: The non-COVID portfolio delivered 9% operational revenue growth in Q4 2025, anchored by Vyndaqel at $1.688 billion and Eliquis at $2.020 billion. This steady cash generation supports the 6.41% dividend yield at current prices, or 43 cents per share quarterly.
3. Pipeline depth: Pfizer has guided for approximately 20 pivotal trial starts in 2026, including 10 obesity assets from its Metsera acquisition and 4 starts for its PD-1 x VEGF bispecific. This breadth limits dependence on any single readout and creates multiple shots at re-rating the stock.

What Will It Take for PFE to Reach $36?

At approximately 5.69 billion shares outstanding, a $36 price would place Pfizer’s market cap well above today’s $152.3 billion. Getting there likely requires a positive MEVPRO-1 readout in H2 2026, continued non-COVID revenue growth sustaining $59.5 to $62.5 billion revenue guidance, and the market re-rating the stock closer to its forward P/E of 9x, one of the lowest valuations in large-cap pharma.

The primary risk is policy-driven pricing pressure, including Most-Favored-Nation drug pricing and IRA Medicare redesign, which could compress margins regardless of pipeline wins. Still, with a consistent earnings beat track record, with four consecutive quarters of outperformance in 2025, and a catalyst-rich second half ahead, Guggenheim’s $36 target reflects a credible, if bold, path for patient investors.