One year ago, 24/7 Wall St. published a buy-the-dip call on Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI). The thesis rested on Nvidia’s pivot into quantum, real-time error correction on the 84-qubit Ankaa-2, the December 2024 launch of Ankaa-3 with 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity, a $100 million equity raise, and a planned modular 36-qubit system built from interconnected 9-qubit chips.
The One-Year Scoreboard
The call almost doubled. Here is the report card:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Price on April 14, 2025 (article date) | $8.86 |
| Price on April 22, 2026 | $18.01 |
| Trailing 1-year | +91.2% |
| YTD 2026 | −21.4% |
| 52-week range | $8.35 to $58.15 |
Most of the thesis pillars played out. Rigetti released Cepheus-1-36Q in Q2 2025 (the modular chiplet system), hit 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity at 28 nanoseconds on a prototype, and stacked partnerships with Riverlane, Nvidia, Quanta Computer, and QphoX. Quanta’s $35 million private placement closed, and CEO Subodh Kulkarni framed the progress bluntly: “In 2025, we made great progress across fidelity, scale, and system architecture.” Commercial traction followed, including an $8.4 million C-DAC order for a 108-qubit system and $5.7 million in Novera purchase orders.
The stock peaked at about $58.15 before retracing. Valuation is the culprit: a $5.8 billion market cap sits on $7.09 million in full-year 2025 revenue (down from $10.79 million in 2024) and a $216.21 million net loss. The price-to-sales ratio is 855. Q4 revenue missed consensus by 21.68%, and shares fell 18.44% in the 30 days following the Q4 print. Reddit sentiment whipsawed from euphoria in late October 2025 (scores 61 to 81) to very bearish by early December (12 to 18) on insider-selling narratives.
What to Do Now
The bull case still has legs. Rigetti closed 2025 with $589.83 million in cash and investments, the roadmap targets a 1,000+ qubit system by end of 2027, and nine of 12 analysts rate it Buy or better, with a $30.58 target. The bear case is equally real: revenue shrinking, losses widening, and dilution from 171.9 million to 298.3 million shares. For investors who doubled up, trimming to a house-money position is defensible research guidance. For new money, the current 47% drawdown from highs is a better entry than October 2025, but size it for a 1.83 beta stock that trades on narrative, not earnings.
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