TD Cowen Raises Match Group Price Target to $44: Is Hinge Finally Driving the Dating App Comeback?

By David Moadel Published May 4, 10:33AM EDT

Quick Read

TD Cowen raised Match Group’s (MTCH) price target to $44 from $37, citing Hinge’s strong 26% growth trajectory as the driver of a bullish reset ahead of Q1 earnings.
Hinge’s momentum and foreign exchange tailwinds could offset Tinder’s decline, reframing investor focus away from Tinder’s 3% paying-user drop and toward the scaling growth engine at Hinge.

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TD Cowen Raises Match Group Price Target to $44: Is Hinge Finally Driving the Dating App Comeback? — © Leon Neal / Getty Images

TD Cowen raised its price target on Match Group (NASDAQ:MTCH | MTCH Price Prediction) stock to $44 from $37 on Monday, maintaining a Buy rating. The price target raised call lands one day before the company’s Q1 2026 earnings release on May 5, and reframes the dating-app debate around Hinge’s scaling story rather than Tinder’s slide.

The bullish reset is notable because it sits well above the broader Street call. Consensus analyst target price stands at $36.24, with 13 holds against 7 buys. For Match Group stock holders, the question is whether Hinge’s momentum is finally enough to drive a re-rating.

Ticker	Company	Firm	Action	Old Rating	New Rating	Old Target	New Target
MTCH	Match Group	TD Cowen	Price Target Raised	Buy	Buy	$37	$44

The Analyst’s Case

TD Cowen’s Q1 preview frames a constructive setup. The firm models 3% year-over-year (YoY) revenue growth, in line with consensus, with strong Hinge growth and foreign exchange (FX) tailwinds doing the heavy lifting. TD slightly raised Match estimates ahead of the print.

Hinge’s trajectory backs the Match Group thesis. Hinge Direct Revenue rose 26% to $186 million in Q4 2025 and is on track to reach $1 billion in revenue in 2027. Management guided low-to-mid 20% Hinge Direct Revenue growth for FY2026.

Company Snapshot

Match Group operates the world’s largest dating-app portfolio, including Tinder, Hinge, OkCupid, Match.com, and Plenty of Fish. CEO Spencer Rascoff is steering a multi-year reset that leans on Hinge while Tinder stabilizes. Full-year FY2025 results showed revenue of $3.49 billion and free cash flow of $1.02 billion, up 16% YoY.

Capital return remains a pillar. Match Group’s board raised the quarterly dividend to $0.20, and $959 million remains on the buyback authorization.

Why the Move Matters Now

MTCH stock has run hard into the call. Shares are up roughly 22% over the past month and 19% year to date, closing recently at $38.15. The valuation looks reasonable at a forward P/E ratio of 10x and a trailing P/E ratio of 16x.

The bear case still bites. Tinder Direct Revenue fell 3% in Q4 2025 with payers down 8% YoY, and Wall Street Zen downgraded MTCH to Hold on April 18. Demographic headwinds and competition from Instagram and TikTok cap user growth.

What It Means for Your Portfolio

For prudent investors, TD Cowen’s price target raised call is an incremental vote that the Hinge growth engine, paired with FX tailwinds and $110 million of expected adjusted EBITDA savings from alternative payments, can outweigh Tinder’s drag. The setup favors patient holders who can tolerate a multi-quarter Tinder turnaround.

Watch for whether tomorrow’s Q1 earnings report confirms guidance of $850 to $860 million in revenue and Hinge’s monetization continues to scale. Tinder paying-user trends, FX impact, and buyback pacing are the key tells. The analyst upgrade narrative on Match Group stock hinges on execution, and Tuesday afternoon will deliver the next data point.

About the Author David Moadel →

David Moadel is financial writer specializing in stocks, ETFs, options, precious metals, and Bitcoin. David has written well over 1,000 articles for leading online publications, helping investors understand markets, income strategies, and risk.

His work has appeared in The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, U.S. News & World Report, TipRanks, ValueWalk, Benzinga, Market Realist, TalkMarkets, Finmasters, 24/7 Wall St., and others.

With a master’s degree in education, David has taught at the elementary, high school, and college levels. That teaching background shapes his writing style: clear, educational, and practical. David has also built a loyal social-media audience by providing trustworthy financial content on YouTube, X/Twitter, and StockTwits.