Live: Will Axon Deliver Another Blowout Quarter After the Bell?

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A Chance to Reset the Narrative

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This quarter will determine whether the post-Q4 sell-off reflects doubt about the 2028 path or general multiple compression.

With a forward P/E near 49x and an average analyst price target of $701.76, analysts see a lot of upside for the stock.

A clean Q1 with NRR holding above 120% would likely help meaningfully for Axon’s sentiment.

Investors are watching Axon Enterprise (NASDAQ:AXON | AXON Price Prediction) ahead of its Q1 2026 results. After a blowout Q4 and bold full-year guidance, shares have slid roughly a third over the past twelve months, raising the stakes for management to defend its AI-led growth story this report.

From Earnings Beat to 33% YTD Decline

Last quarter, revenue rose 38.53% year over year to $796.7 million, topping consensus by 5.59%, while non-GAAP EPS of $2.15 beat the $1.60 estimate by 34.37%. Annual recurring revenue cleared $1.35 billion, net revenue retention hit 125%, and 2025 bookings reached $7.4 billion, up 46%. CFO Brittany Bagley called the 2026 setup “the strongest outlook we have had heading into the year.”

Yet the stock has fallen 13.99% since the February 24 filing and 38.75% over twelve months, trading near $375.60. Insiders sold across the C-suite from late February through April with no purchases recorded.

AI Adoption and Margins Will Set the Tone

I’ll be watching three things. First, the AI Era Plan ramp. President Joshua Isner said new product bookings nearly tripled to over $1 billion in 2025, with the AI Era Plan alone driving approximately $750 million. Axon Assistant is live at 500+ public safety agencies, generating 200,000+ messages per month. Sustained pace here would reinforce the software flywheel.

Second, margins. Bagley said the company has baked in a 15% global tariff, but Connected Devices revenue of $454.2 million (+37.6%) still carries exposure. With software margins above 80%, continued mix shift toward Software & Services, which grew 39.8% to $342.5 million in Q4, helps the story.

Third, integration. The Carbyne deal closed in Q1, bringing Carbyne into the Axon 911 stack. Investors are going to want to see early traction in bookings and cross-sell to Fusus customers. International revenue, currently around 19% of the mix, is another swing factor after international bookings crossed $1 billion for the first time in 2025.