ADP Sees December Job Losses Off The Charts

This is a revised number with new methodology, but ADP’s job loss number predictions for December are off the chart.  ADP had previously been under expectations where Wall Street economists saw 500,000 non-farm payroll losses.  This new revised target from ADP is now showing that ADP expects to see a contraction in total jobs by a whopping 693,000 in December.

The breakdown is as follows:

• Small businesses            -281,000
• Medium businesses         -321,000
• Large businesses             -91,000

OR BY SECTOR

• Goods-producing sector   -220,000
• Service-providing sector   -473,000

As ADP stated: Beginning this month, the ADP Report will incorporatemethodological improvements intended to improve the correspondencebetween the nonfarm private employment estimates shown in the ADPReport and estimates published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’Employment Situation Report.

Please be advised that ADP has still been very questionable on itsestimates.  It does offer some insight, but its numbers have fluctuatedwildly in good times and in bad times when compared to the BLS data.

Jon C. Ogg
January 7, 2009