Recession Radar: Jobless Claims Keep Rising & Durable Goods Keep Contracting

If you were hoping for more lighthearted or feel good numbers on the economic front, you might have to look elsewhere this morning.  The weekly jobless claims data were awful again,and durable goods orders were down worse than expected.

The weekly jobless claims were 588,000 for the week, and now thecontinuing jobless claims have grown from 4.6+ million to a higherreading of 4.77+ million jobs.  The weekly number is not offdrastically, as the estimates were for a drop of 581,000.  The numbercame in at a revised +3,000 rather than -4,000.  But the continuedjobless claims are now at a record high.

The durable goods orders tanked too.  Durable goodsorders came in at -2.6% for December, worse than the -2.0% expected.The ex-transport numbers were even worse, with a reading of -3.6% andestimates of only -1.7%.  Ex-defense is also worse with a reading of-4.9%, compared to estimates of -3.9%.  In short, businesses are notspending and consumers are not taking home the high-ticket items andfxtures.

Jon C. Ogg
January 29, 2009