ADP released its own "pre-unemployment number" again for January, and the jobs lost aren’t expected to be pretty. The payroll company estimates that the US private sector lost some 522,000 jobs in January. So far, economists expect Friday’s unemployment data to show a loss of 500,000 jobs in the non-farm payrolls. Economists also expect that unemployment will have risen to 7.5% in January from 7.2% in December.
Be advised that ADP is still a new number, and far from perfect. It has been very far off of estimates in more months than it has not. It is hard to know when there will be some "good news" on the jobs front, but by the sound of the Labor Department, the ADP report, and by the large companies making the public layoffs, it is probably later rather than sooner.
Jon C. Ogg
February 4, 2009
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