The Labor Department is out with its November unemployment rate and the change in non-Farm payrolls. The official unemployment rate in November went down to 10.0% from 10.2% in October. That is of course the official rate, as the unofficial rate is tallied much higher and most agree on somewhere around 17%. The change in non-Farm payrolls for November came in at a much ‘less-bad’ rate of -11,000 jobs.
Bloomberg had estimates at 10.2% for the unofficial unemployment rate and -100,000 on non-Farm Payrolls on the jobs front. We saw a Dow Jones consensus yesterday of 10.2% and -125,000, so you at least have a range. The question now is whether you believe the data or not.
Average hourly earnings came in at +0.1% and average hours per week rose 0.2 hours to 33.2 hours, while Bloomberg listed +0.2% on wages and 33.1 hours as the consensus estimates. The October data had been +0.3% on wages and 33.0 hours.
The non-Farm payrolls data from October was also revised down to -111,000 from -190,000.
We had noted yesterday afternoon that President Obama’s language at the White House jobs summit seemed to be taking down expectations on the unemployment rate, but that is hard to tell on any payrolls data. It is still hard reading a new president, but his tone and language yesterday seemed much more concerning than this report would indicate today. I had pointed out an unlikely chance that unemployment could potentially go back under 10% before year-end, and now it seems a bit more plausible rather than possible.
Yesterday’s poor ISM data on the non-manufacturing sector (i.e. service economy jobs) flies completely against this notion of what the Labor Department said today. The Labor department said that services jobs created were +58,000.
This is obviously solid data, and much better than almost every economist was expecting. It is certainly better than what we were expecting and far better than a bias feel yesterday afternoon. Now the question looms…. Is this data from the Labor Department REAL or is it due to crafty computing?
JON C. OGG
The #1 Thing to Do Before You Claim Social Security (Sponsor)
Choosing the right (or wrong) time to claim Social Security can dramatically change your retirement. So, before making one of the biggest decisions of your financial life, it’s a smart idea to get an extra set of eyes on your complete financial situation.
A financial advisor can help you decide the right Social Security option for you and your family. Finding a qualified financial advisor doesn’t have to be hard. SmartAsset’s free tool matches you with up to three financial advisors who serve your area, and you can interview your advisor matches at no cost to decide which one is right for you.
Click here to match with up to 3 financial pros who would be excited to help you optimize your Social Security outcomes.
Have questions about retirement or personal finance? Email us at [email protected]!
By emailing your questions to 24/7 Wall St., you agree to have them published anonymously on a673b.bigscoots-temp.com.
By submitting your story, you understand and agree that we may use your story, or versions of it, in all media and platforms, including via third parties.
Thank you for reading! Have some feedback for us?
Contact the 24/7 Wall St. editorial team.
Latest from 24/7
