Jobless Data Fails To Inspire

After the surprise drop of 23,000 in ADP estimated payrolls for March, all eyes were on the Labor Department’s weekly jobless claims data.  There was a drop of 6,000 on an adjusted basis to 439,000; the prior week’s figures were revised upwards from 442,000 to 445,000.  Dow Jones was looking for a drop of about 2,000 on the weekly jobless claims figures, so today’s data is effectively in-line with expectations.

The four week average came in with a drop of 6,750 to 447,250, which looks to be the lowest reading since late 2008.

The army of unemployed measured by the continuing jobless claims fell 6,000 to 4,662,000 from a revised figure of 4,668,000.

Economists are looking for 9.7% unemployment tomorrow for the month of March, but the real watch will be on the change in non-Farm payrolls.  That figure had been expected to be a gain of 200,000 but yesterday’s weak ADP data and this morning’s jobless claims data may have brought that figure down.

Maybe this is less bad, but good news on the jobs front is so far elusive.  This data so far won’t wreck the recovery because even if the jobs do not come for another month or two, they are expected to come.  Besides, employment is continually called a lagging economic indicator.  How long it lags, well that is a different argument.

JON C. OGG