Finally, Some Good News in Unemployment

The Labor Department has released its figures for unemployment and for non-Farm Payrolls for the month of March.  The official unemployment rate was 9.7% and the change in non-Farm Payrolls was a GAIN of +162,000.  Dow Jones and Bloomberg were both looking for 9.7% unemployment and a gain of 200,000 in non-farm payrolls for March.  That would be unchanged on unemployment and versus an unrevised figure of -36,000 jobs in February.

After the ADP figures showed a loss and after there was no real upside to the Labor Department’s weekly jobless claims, there was a lowered expectation from an official 200,000.  Goldman Sachs cut its estimates to 200,000 yesterday, and it seemed like many investors were looking for an official unemployment rate of 9.6%.

February was revised to -14,000 jobs in the non-Farm Payrolls, but January and February payrolls were revised to up 62,000.  Census accounted for 48,000 of today’s reported gains.  The overall number was perhaps a disappointment, but the number of Census workers was actually less than expected and that cannot hurt anyone’s feelings.  Temporary jobs rose by 40,000 jobs in March, and the economy has now added over 300,000 in the temporary worker field.

Hourly earnings fell 0.1% to $22.47 and the average work week was up 0.7%.  The total government employment from federal, state and local jobs rose 39,000 in March. Manufacturing continued to rise with a gain of 17,000 jobs.

There are of course some quality concerns in the data.  The unofficial unemployment rate rose for the month.  Those who are listed as being marginally attached to the labor force and those working part-time for economic reasons rose by 0.1% to 16.9% versus 16.8% in February.  That is down from the peak of 17.3% but is also higher than the 16.2% figure from a year ago at the peak of the economic panic.

This is good news in the end, particularly when you consider that unemployment is a lagging indicator (which has lagged and lagged).  It is also finally the first real gain in jobs on the report date rather than in revisions.  But this is also an equilibrium gain that maintains balance.  It is not so strong that Bernanke and friends will be forced to pull the rug out from under the near-zero rates. It also is strong enough to keep the bulls happy in stocks.

Stocks are closed and bonds have a half day.

JON C. OGG