The newest minutes from the June 22 to 23, 2010 FOMC meeting is a lowering of economic growth estimates from the Federal Reserve for the rest of 2010. The market has already reflected this in the June sell-off, and the market recovery so far in July has began to address a lower growth environment rather than a true double-dip recession. This is effectively an increase in the chances of more stimulus if the slowing down gets much worse.
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The standout notion outside of the inflation commentary is that the Fed seems to now think that it could be another 5 to 6 years for the economy to recover to a sustainable independent growth level. The good news is that the FOMC also believes that no further accommodation was needed for now.
One of the weaknesses noted was that the jobs market recovery has remained elusive and the issues affecting Europe were a drag. No board members suggested that more rounds of securities purchases were needed to support the system, but it seems as though there is also a trend to defer at least some of the asset sales that had been on the table.
In short, the FOMC is still on hold. The full minutes from the FOMC are here for you Fed-Heads.
JON C. OGG
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