ISM-New York Signals That Employment Is Holding Up

We have seen some additional data ahead of Friday’s key employment report, although we would note that this is only a small snapshot that is likely not large enough to make any broad determination. The ISM-New York overall reading was called “Slow going, outlook cut” today.

The formal ISM-New York report rose to 52.9 in September from 51.4% in August. Unfortunately, future optimism fell to an 11-month low as the Six-Month Outlook moved down to 56.4 in September. The good news is that the employment did not contract. Purchase volume contracted as the Quantity of Purchases came in at 48.4 in September as the third straight month of contraction. Employment came in above the 50.0 mark at 52.8 in September.

Prices Paid hit a 5-month high at 58.8 in September, while the Revenues component rose to 55.0 in September. Expected Demand also grew to 62.5 in September.

As far as the formal employment report from the Labor Department on Friday at 8:30 a.m., Bloomberg is calling for the September nonfarm payrolls to have grown by 113,000 (range 75K to 162K) versus only 96,000 in September. Bloomberg is also calling for the unemployment rate to remain flat at 8.1%, with private sector payrolls growing by 130,000 versus 103,000 in August.

Today’s data is not likely to influence much change to the employment reports due on Friday morning.

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JON C. OGG