ADP Data Brings Lower Expectations for Payrolls and Unemployment Friday

These are merely preliminary attempts to benchmark the payrolls reports from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday. We expect that some of the official estimates will come down, now that both TrimTabs and ADP have come in softer than what is expected by Friday’s BLS report.

Bloomberg shows that the formal estimate is still 193,000 in nonfarm payrolls, but that includes government workers. The private sector payrolls are expected to have grown by 200,000, and the formal unemployment rate is expected to come in flat month-over-month at 7.7%.

TrimTabs is not as widely followed as ADP, and ADP has a very mixed history of predicting jobs reports. That being said, we now expect that the official payrolls data may be ratcheted down slightly in the next 24 hours, ahead of the formal report.