Job creation likely will be capped by the tepid growth of most large economies. Europe in particular will be a drag on a global jobs recovery. Without the addition of ten of millions of jobs around the world, a consumer led recovery of GDP improvement is unlikely. That means for most nations, the chance for much recovery is limited, and with those limits should come substantial concern about whether a recovery is likely at all. Jobs create GDP improvement. Or does GDP improvement create jobs?

Manpower released its employment forecast for the third quarter:

Manpower Group’s third-quarter 2013 Manpower Employment Outlook survey, released today, provides little evidence that global hiring plans are improving by any notable degree into the second half of the year as uncertainty continues to hinder employer confidence across the globe.

This quarter’s research of over 65,000 hiring managers in 42 countries and territories reveals:

• Hiring Activity Slows: Employers in 31 countries and territories surveyed plan to
  boost payrolls in the coming quarter, compared with 32 of 42 in Q2. Hiring optimism
  strengthens quarter-over-quarter in 17 countries and territories but weaken in 21.
  When compared with one year ago at this time, outlooks improve in 14 countries and
  territories but decline in 26.
• Emerging Markets Again Head the Pack: Employers in Taiwan, Brazil, Panama,
  Peru and Turkey reported the strongest hiring expectations globally. The weakest
  markets for job seekers are expected in Italy, Ireland and Spain.
• Europe Still Buffeted by Economic Headwinds: Although hiring expectations are
  positive in 13 of 24 countries in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region,
  employers report negative hiring intentions in nine countries — the same number as
  in Q2. The Net Employment Outlook in France is negative for the first time in four
  years, and although the outlook in Greece remains negative, it continues to improve.
• Asia-Pacific Positive, But Hesitant: Workforces are expected to grow in all eight
  countries and territories in the region but employers in India report the weakest
  forecast since joining the survey eight years ago. China’s Outlook is the weakest in
  three-and-a-half years.
• Percentage of U.S. Employers Planning to Add to Payrolls Strongest in Four
  Years: The U.S. labor market remains upbeat, with the overall percentage of U.S.
  employers expecting to hire during the third quarter greater than at any point since
  before 2009.

A U.S. hiring recovery, which appears to be muted, even if it is the best in four years, cannot last long if the balance of the world lags.

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