Jobs
What to Expect From Labor Department's Unemployment and Payrolls This Week
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On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its unemployment situation report for the month of December. Unlike November, this report comes on the heels of a negative ISM manufacturing report, but jobless claims through the month have remained at a relatively low level. It is also worth noting that this is also one of the most widely followed economic reports each month by investors, traders, economists, business owners and even by politicians.
Bloomberg has a consensus estimate for nonfarm payrolls of 245,000 in Friday’s report. The reading for November was 321,000.
The unemployment rate was 5.8% for both November and October. The Bloomberg consensus estimate for December is 5.7%, which would be its lowest level in nearly seven years.
November’s reading for private sector payrolls came in at 314,000. The consensus estimate for December is currently 238,000.
The average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% in November, and there is a consensus estimate for an increase of 0.2% in December. The average work week was previously recorded at 34.6 hours, and Bloomberg expects this number to remain flat.
ADP and TrimTabs tried to pinpoint their projections ahead of the Labor Department to offer additional insight into the jobs market. The ADP employment report will be released Wednesday by Moody’s Analytics. There is a Bloomberg consensus estimate of 235,000, against the reading for November of 208,000. TrimTabs is expected to release its employment numbers around this time, as well.
The ISM index was recorded at 55.5, compared to the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 57.5. Ultimately this was down 3.2 points from the previous reading 58.7, as well as the slowest rate of monthly growth in six months. However, employment was positive in the report, up 1.9 points to 56.8, which was a strong reading for this report.
Investors should keep in mind that estimates and targets for unemployment and payrolls may change by the time Friday rolls around. We have many precursor estimates that will have been seen by Friday, and economists often make changes to their preliminary views.
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