ADP and TrimTabs Throw Curve Ball to Labor Department Payrolls Expectations

Jobs

Published: May 6, 2015 9:00 am

Last Updated: May 6, 2015 9:02 am

The market has a huge discrepancy to deal with now for job creation and Friday’s official payrolls report from the U.S. Department of Labor. ADP showed a projected 169,000 private sector jobs added, but TrimTabs estimated that some 327,000 jobs were created. Needless to say, this just created a tug-of-war for how to predict Friday’s results.

The April ADP National Employment Report showed that private sector employment increased by 169,000 jobs from March to April. This report was in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics and is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data. It measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally adjusted basis.

ADP showed the following creations by business group:

Small businesses added 94,000.
Medium-sized businesses added 70,000.
Large businesses added 5,000.

TrimTabs Investment Research estimated that the U.S. economy added a whopping 327,000 jobs in April. This is up from 268,000 jobs created in March, and the group said that this was the strongest month for job growth since May of 2010. The TrimTabs employment estimates are based on analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from the paychecks of the 140 million U.S. workers subject to withholding.

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Bloomberg has the following expectations for the Labor Department’s Employment Situation report due this Friday at 8:30 a.m. Easter Time:

Nonfarm payrolls expected 220,000, versus prior 126,000.
Private sector payrolls expected 223,000, versus prior 129,000.
Unemployment rate 5.4% expected, versus 5.5% prior.

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