Jobs

COVID-19 Report: How Many Jobs Actually at Risk in Recession?

Douglas A. McIntyre

Published: March 17, 2020 6:14 am

Last Updated: March 17, 2020 7:16 am

Economists have begun to consider how many jobs are at risk in a sharp downturn, particularly one caused by COVID-19. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) keeps an analysis of jobs by sector and how those jobs are expected to grow through 2028. Some of those projects are now worthless. Some sectors have millions of employees who soon may be out of work.

Not everyone in each sector will lose their jobs. One way to analyze the potential crippling is to look at total employment by each BLS business grouping, particularly those that already have been affected or will be soon. Jobs across these categories total 52 million. Of course, only a portion of those will be lost and could be replaced quickly based on the spread of the virus.

The first and largest group that will have losses is retail, which employs 15.8 million workers. The shuttering of stores has spread rapidly. Nordstrom just closed all of its locations for two weeks. It will not be the first of the mega-retailers to do so. Unquestionably, some these people will be laid off, probably for at least six months.

The hospitality industry employs 16.4 million people. These work, to a large extent, in hotels and food services. The other major portion of the jobs in this sector is arts, entertainment and recreation.

The construction sector is a wild card. How much will building, both residential and business, be hurt? Probably badly, as demand for homes plunges due to concern about years of mortgage costs. There may be some level of mortgage defaults. Businesses will not need new office capacity because of a rise in national unemployment. And many businesses will not want to take on construction projects that involve borrowing and increased leverage. Construction jobs nationwide number 7.3 million.

Manufacturing is bound to be damaged as demand for products like cars drops. Other manufactured goods are spread across the economy. This sector employs 12.7 million people. While companies like automakers will keep some capacity, they will not be able to keep it all online.

Fifty-two million jobs are about a third of the American workforce, which is around 169 million. While the portion of the jobs nationwide that could be lost is not that high, it is a measure of what the unemployment risk is.