Last summer, nearly 1.74 million workers between the ages of 16 and 19 found jobs. That number represents the highest total since 2001. The coronavirus pandemic may cut that number by nearly half.

Andrew Challenger, senior vice president of outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said, “A month ago, we would have predicted another summer of massive teen hiring. We had one of the tightest labor markets on record, historically low unemployment, and high consumer confidence–the perfect recipe for companies that traditionally hire teen workers, like retail and entertainment venues, to beef up staff.”

COVID-19 has changed all that. The businesses that would typically be looking for summer workers have been hit hard by state and local orders to close all but essential businesses. Restaurants can still offer take-out food, but amusement parks, swimming pools and other social and recreational venues are closed.

Challenger added, “Many of these venues have stopped operating as non-essential businesses with reopening timelines in question. Grocery and department stores that are on a hiring binge now come with an inherent risk that did not exist before the outbreak. If we are able to weather this crisis and get businesses back up and running by June, we may see a surge in teen hiring then, however, teen workers, as well as any job seeker, may be much more wary of accepting public-facing roles.”

A March Challenger survey indicated that 37% of companies have already instituted hiring freezes while 11% have already conducted layoffs. Almost half expect to lay off workers in the next three months (April through June). Some (4%) are revoking internship offers because of the coronavirus outbreak.

According to Challenger data, the lowest number of summer hires recorded since 1998 was 960,000 in 2010, while the country was recovering from the financial crisis. Andrew Challenger noted, “This year may see even fewer as conservative estimates suggest businesses will likely still be closed for much or part of May.”

In the past two weeks, nearly 10 million Americans have filed first-time claims for unemployment benefits. Challenger has suggested that job losses in the entertainment and leisure sector of the economy could top 14 million, more than 85% of the sector’s workforce.

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