Jobs

Is There Actually Good News in the Atrocious 5.2 Million Weekly Jobless Claims?

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What was an incredibly strong job market at the start of 2020 has quickly deteriorated into a massively rising unemployment situation. The U.S. Department of Labor reported on Thursday that weekly jobless claims were 5.245 million in the past week. The good news, if there can be any good news in a number that size, is that this was actually 1.37 million less than in the prior week. The bad news is that forecasters and economists were calling for closer to 5 million.

Perhaps the saddest figure in this report was that now a combined 22 million have filed for unemployment benefits just in the past few weeks. This also wipes out almost all the jobs that were gained since the recovery of the Great Recession a decade ago.

Also in the report, the prior week’s preliminary report of 6.606 million was revised upward to 6.615 million.

Where some other “good news” may be seen is that the unadjusted numbers (without seasonal factors) were actually 4.97 million in weekly claims. That unadjusted figure is down 20% from the prior week.

The 22 million unemployed represents roughly a 13% decline in total employment. It may be worse had it not been for the Paycheck Protection Program from the Small Business Administration, but the real tally here, where the dust settles, will not be known for weeks as many small and large businesses alike are in a state of flux, with many businesses under forced or voluntary closures. Some of the “furlough” announcements will end up being permanent job cuts, while other positions will be reinstated as the economy begins to be rebooted.

The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 8.2% for the prior week, up 3.1 percentage points and the highest seasonally adjusted level since the prior high of 7.0% in May of 1975. The continuing claims for the week of April 4 hit a record high of 11,976,000.

Eugene Scalia, U.S. Secretary of Labor, said regarding this week’s claims:

Today’s report reflects the continuing impact of the important public health measures being taken to defeat the coronavirus. Americans are making sacrifices for the wellbeing of the country, and the Trump Administration is moving quickly to support workers and small businesses during this difficult time. The Department of Labor has issued all the essential guidance the States need to implement the historic unemployment benefits expansion under the CARES Act, and 29 States are now paying the $600 weekly boost in unemployment benefits under the Act. The remaining States will begin providing the benefit as they update their systems. The Department has disbursed more than half a billion dollars in administrative funding to States to help them contend with the surge in claims and burden on their staff and computer systems, and additional funding will be released as States apply and meet the requirements set by Congress. The Administration also continues to prioritize keeping American workers connected to their employers through programs that aid business owners in keeping workers on payroll. As America maintains its disciplined efforts to “slow the spread,” the Department will continue to prioritize getting prompt relief to workers and the States and businesses that support them.

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