Recession Central, Greenspan Speaks From The Crypt...So Does Everyone Else

Almost every single day there are reports of ‘greater and greater chances that the US is heading into a recession in 2008."  We aren’t trying to stand up as a fair weather forecaster, but interestingly enough it is amazing how all the over-reporting might make it happen even…. even if we would have escaped.

• Former FOMC Chief Alan Greenspan (CNBC report) today lifted his chances that the US will tip into recession at 50% rather than a prior 30% chance, He noted how the US economy will be in trouble and vulnerable to shocks for the next two quarters.
• John Bogle, the Vanguard founder, just put the chances at 75% that the U.S. is heading for recession during a CNBC interview.
• Goldman Sachs recently put the chance at 45%.
• Reuters reported that FITCH rating agency now has a 40% chance of a recession.
• Warren Buffett said on CNBC this week in his interview that the economy is very close.  He noted that if employment starts to snag then we’ll tip into recession.
• Morgan Stanley expects a recession now.
• Barclay’s speaks to FinancialWeek on their recession comments.
• CNBC reports market pundits saying that optimism about a central bank effort to ease the global credit crunch turned to skepticism.
• MarketWatch lists recession stories in its dailies.
• Bill Gross of PIMCO thinks 3 1/4% Fed Funds is the answer.

Here is our own list DEFENSIVE STOCKS where investors currently try to hide if they have to keep some money in stocks.

Jon C. Ogg
December 13, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at [email protected]; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.