Media and advertising have always gone hand in hand. How that has changed over the past decade is incredible. Where newspapers and print still received a large amount of ad dollars in 2004, that number has been cut more than 60%. Internet advertising is up an unbelievable 500% in those same 10 years. Cable TV has also taken a larger chunk of the print dollars, with revenues up almost 75%. The future is clear: more money will migrate to the Internet and cable, while less money goes to print and radio.
In a new research report, the entertainment analysts at UBS look at new technologies, online measurement, broadband penetration and how online video appears to be impacting industry advertising growth. While they see growth expanding in some channels like broadcast television, they do not view 2014 as a tipping point. That being said, they think the impact of Netflix on television advertising could be close to a staggering $3 billion in 2014.
While valuations are close to highs, the UBS team is still suggesting investors rotate into media from other consumer discretionary areas. Here are the top stocks to buy for 2014 at UBS.
CBS Corp. (NYSE: CBS) may be in the best position of all the networks, and it is one of the top two picks at UBS. With an outstanding prime-time lineup, solid sports franchises like the NFL, March Madness College Basketball, The Masters and other top programming, the venerable network has been an outstanding stock for shareholders. Investors are paid a small 0.8% dividend. The stock is up more than 60% in the past year. The UBS price target is $67. The Thomson/First Call estimate is $64. CBS closed Wednesday at $60.77.
Charter Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: CHTR) may have an extremely bright future as the company continues to pursue an acquisition of Time Warner Cable. The company was soundly rejected in its first attempt, and other offers may be put together in the cable industry for consolidation. In the company’s third quarter, Charter posted a more than 5% gain in top-line sales to $2.1 billion. Growth came in the form of improvements across not only Internet and commercial revenue, but video, as well. The UBS price target for the stock is $150, and the consensus price target for Charter is set at $138.70. The stock closed Wednesday at $135.
Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA) is a top consumer discretionary name for 2014. The largest cable company in the United States continued its push to be a top entertainment name. The UBS analysts think 2014 will be another banner year for entertainment stocks, with continued strong pricing power, advertising spending growth and new digital platforms. Comcast shareholders are paid a 1.5% dividend. The UBS price target is $60. The Thomson/First Call Target is $56.17. Comcast closed Wednesday at $53.74
Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) is well positioned to fight the original programming challenge, and it is the other top pick at UBS. With perhaps the widest portfolio of entertainment on Wall Street, the lackluster programming at ABC is not as much of an earnings burden. The strength at sports powerhouse ESPN continues to drive revenue growth, and the stock looks poised for a solid 2014. Shareholders are paid a 1.1% dividend. The stock is up more than 40% in the past year. The UBS price target is $78, and the consensus price target is posted at $77.48. The stock ended Wednesday at $75.31.
Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) remains the 900-pound gorilla in the technology space. With everything from a dominate search platform to their Android operating system and to Youtube, the company continues to lead the industry. The UBS team thinks that Google may use the Youtube platform to stream original programming much like Netflix. In addition, the company has a mountain of cash, which at almost $55 billion provides ample room for innovation and acquisitions. The UBS price target for the stock is $1,275. The consensus is posted at $1,197.90. Google closed Wednesday at $1,165.02.
News Corp. (NASDAQ: NWSA) dominates cable news and is expected to for the foreseeable future. The company now operates in five segments: News and Information Services, Cable Network Programming, Digital Real Estate Services, Book Publishing and Other. Earnings have increased over the past four quarters and may offer investors one of the best media values. The UBS price target is $20, and the consensus is at $17.87. The stock closed Wednesday at $16.65.
Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) is a top name to buy for 2014 at UBS, and with good reason. With a variety of entertainment brands like TNT, TBS, CNN, HBO, Cinemax, Warner Bros., New Line Cinema, People, Sports Illustrated and Time, the company also offers investors diversity in earnings. The UBS price target is set at $75, and the consensus is at $75.38. Investors are paid a 1.8% dividend. The stock closed Wednesday at $65.76.
One nice consideration for investors when buying the top media stocks is entertainment never goes out of style. In fact, when economic times are tough, entertainment tends to hold its own better than many other areas. While Internet advertising will increase, the diversified media companies will continue to attract advertising and consumer dollars. Carving out a portion of a portfolio to include media names makes good sense.
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