Twitter Inc. (NYSE: TWTR) has had its fill of problems. We have warned over and over how media interest could turn on it and drive down use, mainly because Twitter is capable of such a high degree of demonetization of content and efforts of so many. That being said, it seems more and more likely that Twitter’s stock carnage may have reached its zenith. A pair of unlikely analyst upgrades at the end of this last week may have helped Twitter’s stock put in a near-term bottom.
What investors need to understand is that Twitter’s drop had been an endless one. Now that 400+ million share lock-up expiration has come and gone, and the company has said that no secondary offering will be filed.
Keep in mind that the peak of the selling may have simply been the pointing out that Twitter could bust its IPO price. That means that shares could trade under after peaking at almost $75 at the end of 2013. Twitter shares briefly traded under $30 this last week, closing in on the $26 IPO price.
Twitter’s stock rating was raised to Neutral from Underperform at BofA Merrill Lynch on Friday. On Thursday, Twitter shares were raised to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley. Neither sound like massive rescue ratings, but they did stop the carnage.
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As shares stay in the low $30s or even if they dip back down into the low $30s, it seems safe to assume that more analysts could finally come to the rescue with upgrades.
We would warn investors that Twitter valuations are still extremely far outside of any valuation normalcy. The investors buying today are not buying based upon 2014 or 2015 multiples. They are buying based upon a 2016 to 2020 story.
Twitter shares dipped under $30 down to $29.51 only for a very brief period on Wednesday; its lowest close was Wednesday’s $30.66. The upgrade on Thursday took it up to $31.96, and the upgrade Friday added only to minor gains to $32.05.
One more issue to consider is that Twitter was at $40 as recently as May 1.
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This is a bounce of nearly 9% from the absolute lows in just over two trading sessions, and it was due to two analyst upgrades that frankly are nothing more than analysts from going from very negative sell-equivalent ratings up to a neutral stance.
Twitter may not have seen all selling pressure end, but this is the first time in a while that some long-term investors may finally start taking a shot at Twitter, particularly if it gets back to around the IPO price.
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