This…is American Idol.

Those words used to mean something more before the reality competition series began taking a ratings tumble it hasn’t yet bounced back from. Unfortunately the series no longer commands the fear it once did from rival networks, but that’s not to say Idol is down for the count, it’s just coming off a rebuilding period even though nobody wants to admit it.

The numbers
The Idol brand is still a respected and important name. For Fox (NASDAQ: FOXA) it’s their Survivor, it’s their Dancing With The Stars, it’s their The Voice. Yet despite competition from Voice, it still arguably remains the gold standard of musical reality competitions…even if the numbers say something different.

According to the (near) final ratings for the 2013-2014 season, both nights of The Voice cracked the Top 10 in both viewership and the all-important 18-49 demo, while Idol’s shows slipped to 14^th and 16^th in viewership and only its Wednesday performance show made the Top 20 in the 18-49 demo (and in 16^th place).  Yet if you look closer Voice’s demo ratings are down 25% year-to-year marking the third straight cycle-to-cycle decline.

Now compare all the audience participation reality show finales from this past week and you’ll notice that while The Voice won the demo handedly, the equally declining Dancing With The Stars held a sizable lead in viewers. Idol meanwhile had a rough week overall with a series low for its final performance show and year-to-year decline of 29% in viewership and 28% in the demo.

Here’s the show-by-show breakdown:
The Voice (Monday) –  11.5 million viewers, 3.2 demo
The Voice (Tuesday) – 11.7 million viewers, 3.3 demo
Dancing With The Stars (Monday) – 15 million viewers, 2.6 demo
Dancing With The Stars (Tuesday) – 15. 1 million viewers, 2.4 demo
American Idol (Tuesday) – 6.8 million viewers, 1.7 demo
American Idol (Wednesday) – 10.1 million viewers, 2.6 demo

The reputation
So if the ratings have plateaued, why does Idol remain such an important building block in Fox’s business model? And why can you still say it’s the gold standard? It all comes down to pedigree. Idol was the first and that counts for a lot. Before spinning chairs and Twitter saves, there was Simon Cowell — a talented music executive without a filter. It didn’t matter what he said or how he said it, people were interested. And despite his exit they’ve stayed interested in at least one big aspect: it’s talent pool. If you made it to the end of Idol, audiences knew you had some iota of sustainable talent.

The sales numbers for many of Idol’s stars back up that theory and overall are impressive. Last year, according to Forbes, original winner Kelly Clarkson earned $7 million and fellow early years winner Carrie Underwood cleared well over $30 million. That’s staying power. While last year’s winner Candice Glover hasn’t had much luck, the two previous winners Scotty McCreery and Phillip Phillips are on fire. McCreery’s debut album sold 1 million copies and Phillips saw his debut single top the 4 million mark (an Idol record) and both went on to earn platinum certifications.

Now while The Voice is the real deal in the ratings, it suffers in one key area: marketability of talent. Idol alums have gone on to star in TV shows, headline Broadway musicals and of course win Grammys (and even an Oscar). Can you remember who won The Voice two seasons ago? Even the now defunct X Factor and its low ratings managed to dominate the iTunes charts in its final season and at times also outpaced its rivals. For some reason, though, that type of success has eluded The Voice and producers have even incorporated its digital downloads into the show’s voting system.

This isn’t meant to knock what The Voice has accomplished as there’s no doubt it’s impressive. It revived the genre and all it took was a new and fun gimmick. For NBC, The Voice is also one of the main reasons why it won the 18-49 demo this season for the first time in a very long time. It’s also helped the network launch last season’s number one new show (The Blacklist) and is a centerpiece of NBC’s schedule. The point remains though it’s a big concern that the show can’t see to launch anyone and keeps coming up empty despite a few valiant attempts.

The future
In 2015 Fox will make a valiant attempt of its own to help its ailing “hit” and again tweak its business plan for Idol. After (finally) cutting its results show down from a bloated hour to a bite sized 30 minutes, the network is preparing to do away with it entirely. It’s the right move but it’s coming about five seasons too late. You can understand why it took so long to make the move though as it was an easy hour to slot in every week that sold well with advertisers and for a while played well with audiences.That type of game doesn’t work anymore as viewers are smarter now and they realize the show is 95% filler and 5% results and they can just skip 55 minutes in and get the full breakdown.

While cutting the results show may seem like a business risk, it’s not and in fact it’s probably going to help the show. Network sibling So You Think You Can Dance saw its second night eliminated two years ago and it extended the life of the show. ABC tried the same approach this year with Dancing With The Stars and while those numbers still aren’t what they just to be, the move helped the pacing of the series. Eliminating a couple at the end of the show ensured people would stay tuned in for longer. For Idol it will make the performance shows more of an event again which it hasn’t felt like in years.

With the news of Idol’s renewal for a 14^th season also came reports the show’s judges Harry Connick Jr., Jennifer Lopez and Keith Urban were in talks to return as well. While no accountant or analyst in the world can argue that Lopez produces enough of a ratings bump to merit her $15 million salary, this was still the best panel the show’s had in years.

The trio looked like they genuinely wanted to be there, whereas the train wreck panel from the year before (which featured Mariah Carey and Nicki Minaj) looked like they were waiting for somebody to feed them lines. Yes Urban was a part of both groups, but he was marginalized and overshadowed last year and now has been able to come into his own and he really clicks with Connick Jr., who is a natural behind the desk.

The truth is that while Idol may never again reach the 30 million viewer mark its legacy from those days will help keep it rolling along for the foreseeable future. As long as the Carrie Underwood’s and Phillip Phillips’ of the world are still selling albums, Fox still has a reason to keep the show on the air because at the end of the day ratings only have a seasonal impact at best…album sales have no expiration date.

 

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