With the 2013-2014 season in the books, executives are turning towards what they hope will be a promising fall slate. Although investors, analysts and advertisers are still interested in the past as they want to know what worked, what didn’t and why?Looking at the final ratings breakdowns you’ll notice a few surprises that are worth remembering as you make your own personal decisions about where to invest both your time and money in the fall.

At the moment, the world of drama is by far the most profitable of any of the genres. Networks are having a hard time getting audiences to laugh, but when it comes to making them react emotionally executives know the magic formula. With that said some of the biggest winners of last season were of the dramatic variety and many series more than lived up to their classifications.

Rookies
The top three of last year’s freshman class (in the all-important 18-49 advertiser friendly demographic) will all be returning and are evenly split between three networks. They were NBC’s The Blacklist (NASDAQ: CMCSA), ABC’s Resurrection (NYSE: DIS) and Fox’s Sleepy Hollow (NASDAQ: FOXA), with Blacklist also leading all comers in viewers as well.

If you looked at the overall roster of new dramas from last season, many would have only pegged Blacklist as a lock. Yet both Resurrection and Sleepy Hollow shocked all parties as Resurrection was a risky mid-season proposition that delivered audiences and Hollow is based on legend that has literally been done to death but never in this unique way.

Expect all three freshman dramas to be big with advertisers in this buying season, especially as more and more audiences will catch up with them over the summer. Now that viewers know those shows are safe to get hooked on, they will likely move them to the top of their binge-watching rotations.

Returning
In terms of returning fare, as it turns out the season-long swan song for Grey’s Anatomy favorite Sandra Oh proved to be a big draw. The Shonda Rhimes drama Grey’s Anatomy topped all established series in its genre with a demo rating of a 4.4 and fellow Shondaland produced sibling and network neighbor Scandal came in second with CBS juggernaut NCIS taking the third slot (but leading in overall viewers with nearly 20 million weekly viewers).

The success of Grey’s and Scandal isn’t a fluke and this marks Grey’s second year as the leader in the demo. As a result of the success, ABC is doubling down on it in a big way as this fall Rhimes will have an entire night of programming to herself on Thursdays. It’s hard to remember the last time a showrunner had an entire night of just their shows on one network and that’s a huge compliment to Rhimes’ abilities. As a result expect her new series How To Get Away With Murder to be a big seller as well.

Year to Year
As mentioned Grey’s once again won the 18-49 demo for dramas, but with Oh’s exit came the return of more one-time loyal viewers and that boosted its rating from a 4.1 to a 4.4 and strengthening the series’ grip on the top slot. It also helped serve as a stronger lead-in for Scandal, which leap-frogged its way into the number two position with a 4.2 rating. ABC is banking on Grey’s to help end its long-running miseries in its Thursday’s at 8 p.m. black hole and based on these numbers that’s a real possibility for the first time in years.

The news was less good for CBS, which saw its death-star drama NCIS slip from second to third going from a demo rating of 4.0 to 3.3 and seeing its total overall viewers decrease from 21.3 million to 19.8 million. While the quality of NCIS remains as strong as ever, the decline can likely be attributed to the exit of longtime cast member Cote de Pablo who left the fold two episodes into the season. NCIS is a show that has survived many changes over its 11 year run and it shows no sign of slowing down anytime soon which means you shouldn’t let the ratings slip change your perspective on it or the power of its network.

What is frightening is the decline of the 2012-2013 rookie class as not only did none of the three manage to hold its rating, but one even found itself cancelled. The Following (Fox) had a 4.3 demo rating for its first season (ironically the same as The Blacklist earned this season), but saw its viewership plunge in season two.

Meanwhile Revolution which was the “it” drama two seasons ago, went from a 3.9 rating to somewhere in the 1.0 range before being pulled (for good) from the lineup. The lone bright spot in the group was Elementary which while it to slipped it remained mostly consistent in both the demo and viewers.

 

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