Media

How the New Time Inc. Is Evaluated and Valued

Time Inc. (NYSE: TIME) is now out on its own, and the spin-off from Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) is now a week into being on its own. 24/7 Wall St. wanted to see what the new Time looks like on its own, and how Wall Street analysts have decided to cover the stock now that it is on its own.

Time publishes some 23 U.S. magazines: People, Time, Fortune, Sports Illustrated, InStyle, Real Simple, Southern Living, Entertainment Weekly and others. The company also publishes 70 magazines internationally. On top of publishing, it is involved in content marketing, local print and digital marketing, book publishing, magazine sales services, and related services. Time operates dozens of related websites tied to its branded magazines. Time will be a member of the S&P Mid-Cap 400 Index.

Time Inc. has $1.3 billion in net debt after the spin-off, part of which was to pay Time Warner a $600 million dividend. Time Inc. also just acquired Cozi, a great tool for family organization and calendars for desktops and mobile use via tablets and smartphones.

Dow Jones wrote a brief feature on Friday saying that newsstands may be a problem with declines. The drop was 10% in circulation revenue at newsstands with a 0.8% subscription drop in 2012, but in 2013 the drop was 13% in circulation revenue and 3.6% in subscriptions. Fortunately, two-thirds of revenue is from subscriptions.

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The magazine publisher and website operator was started as follows by Wall Street:

  • Citigroup started coverage with a Buy rating on June 13 with a $28 price target.
  • Macquarie, also on June 13, began coverage with a Neutral rating and with a $25 price target.
  • Morgan Stanley started Time with an Equal Weight rating on June 10, giving it a price target of $26 in the call.
  • Wells Fargo initiated coverage with an Outperform rating on June 9, and the firm assigned a price valuation range of $27 to $29 in the call.

Existing Time Warner shareholders received one common share of Time Inc. for every eight shares of Time Warner, and fractional shares were not distributed — they were sold in the market to be distributed as cash.

Since Time Inc. has started trading, its range has been $18.51 to $23.90, and shares closed at $23.15 on Friday. It is too soon and with too few analyst targets to form a real consensus target price yet.

Time Warner closed at $67.84 on Friday, versus a 52-week range of $53.41 to $69.39. Time Warner’s consensus price target is $76.07.

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