Television advertising revenue is still growing, but very slowly. In fact, between 2009 and 2013, traditional TV advertising grew at just a 5% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in both the United States and globally, while cumulative time spent watching TV in the U.S. declined 10% and nearly 30% for those ages 18-24. Young people are watching video and shows, they are just not watching as many of them on TV. If it wasn’t for high revenue generation from premium programming like the NFL, which has allowed networks to raise ad rates, revenues could be flat or perhaps even on the decline.
A new report from the Internet and Media analysts at Stifel makes one thing is clear: ad spending and viewership is transitioning to the Internet. The Stifel team points out that digital video ad spending will grow at an estimated 21% CAGR between 2013 and 2018. Revenue from that spending is expected to grow from $3.9 billion to $9.3 billion. The numbers are even more dramatic on a global basis, where the CAGR is expected to be 29% and revenues will jump from $6.0 billion to $21.6 billion.
Stifel sees two huge winners — Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ: FB) and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) — and another company that could also benefit in a gigantic way — Twitter Inc. (NASDAQ: TWTR).
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Facebook has been on a huge roll the past three earnings reporting quarters, and many on Wall Street feel that the stock has plenty of room to run. Mobile revenue and advertising numbers have skyrocketed, and the company has started to add a search component that could prove to be another earnings silo for the social media giant. With more than 1.3 billion registered users around the world, Facebook’s e-commerce potential is also very significant and growing larger monthly.
The Stifel team believes consumers will increasingly find media and information through their social graph, which puts Facebook in the middle of this information exchange. They also believe the continued growth of smart devices increases Internet usage, and the shift to 4G likely will increase mobile advertising monetization.
The Stifel price target is raised from $95 to $99. The Thomson/First Call target is at $86.18. Shares closed Thursday at $77.22.
Google is another mega-cap tech name that the Stifel analysts favor for the huge growth in online video ad revenue possibilities. The analysts have done an in-depth revenue study for YouTube, and the numbers going forward are truly staggering. For readers not as familiar, many archived television shows, concerts and other programming, including music videos can be found on You Tube.
The Stifel team estimates that YouTube gross revenues will rise from $4 billion, which was 8% total ad revenue in 2013, to $31 billion, which will be 19% of ad revenue in 2024. Net revenues will rise from $2 billion to an amazing $14 billion. Combining this growth with Google’s Internet search dominance and other growing business silos is very compelling for investors.
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The Stifel price target for Google shares is set at a massive $700, and the consensus target is $673.69. Shares closed trading on Thursday at $585.25.
Twitter has become one of the classic “love it or hate it” stories on Wall Street. Many Wall Street analysts have come back around on the Twitter story, after being pretty negative back in the spring. In fact, they have come back so much after the company reported very strong second-quarter earnings that the stock has rallied more than 60% from the lows posted in early May.
In what may be a surprising call from the analysts at Stifel, they have previously identified TV-related advertising as Twitter’s best opportunity to differentiate itself from the other two big players and carve out a valuable niche in the digital display advertising market. With its initial slate of TV-related ad products, Twitter is looking to partner with content creators and TV advertisers while taking a cut of campaign budgets for connecting the two on its platform.
Stifel has a Neutral rating on Twitter stock and no price target. The consensus target for the social media company is $53.12. Twitter closed just below that on Thursday at $51.45.
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The overall digital video figures are staggering. While it will not replace traditional television advertising anytime soon, it is sure to bite deep into overall ad budgets to grab a fair share. Combine these advertising revenues to the companies more traditional revenues, and it means the leaders will continue to lead and dominate.
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