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Netflix Earnings Prove Big Game Hunt for Subscribers

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Netflix Inc.
There is a lesson in the Netflix earnings. President Frank Underwood from “House of Cards” previously said, “For those of us climbing to the top of the food chain there can be no mercy. There is but one rule: Hunt or be hunted.” And it looks like Netflix went big game hunting this quarter for its net additions, despite facing some currency woes.

Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) reported its first-quarter financial results Wednesday after the markets closed. The online streaming giant had $0.38 in earnings per share (EPS) on $1.4 billion in revenue, compared to Thomson Reuters consensus estimates of $0.69 in EPS and $1.57 billion in revenue. The first quarter from the previous year had $0.86 in earnings per share and $1.27 billion in revenue.

The company gave guidance for the second quarter of 2015 as $1.47 billion in total revenue and 2.5 million in total net subscriber additions. The consensus estimate for second quarter revenue is $1.66 billion.

In terms of the segment revenue, the U.S. made up $985 million of total revenue and International filled in the rest with $415 million.

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For the first quarter, the company reported that it had 4.88 million net additions and 62.27 million total members. Making up the total member base, Netflix passed both the 40 million milestone in the United States and 20 million internationally this quarter.

To do this, the U.S. segment gained a first-quarter total of 2.3 million new members, above the expected 1.8 million. Internationally, Netflix added 2.6 million members, compared to the forecast of 2.25 million, due to stronger growth than expected across multiple markets.

In its report Netflix said:

We think strong US growth benefited from our ever-improving content, including the launch of the third season of “House of Cards” and new shows “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt” and “Bloodline.” In addition, retention continued to improve due to the growing value of our service overall. We are forecasting second quarter U.S. net adds of 0.6 million, similar to the year ago quarter.

Just the day before earnings were reported, four firms issued calls on Netflix:

  • SunTrust maintained a Hold rating and raised its price target to $480 from $410.
  • Canaccord Genuity had a Buy rating and raised its price target to $530 from $450.
  • Credit Suisse had a Neutral rating and raised its price target to $461 from $417.
  • Piper Jaffray had a Neutral rating and raised its price target to $487 from $360.

The highest price target from analysts was $600, implying upside of 26% from recent prices.

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Note that the strong dollar had a negative impact on the international segment revenue, $48 million lower year over year, using first quarter 2014 foreign exchange rates. Also EPS would have been $0.77, excluding the forex loss.

Shares of Netflix closed Wednesday down 0.7% to $475.46. Following the release of the earnings report, shares were up 12% at $532.67 in after-hours trading. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $468.08 and a 52-week trading range of $299.50 to $489.29.

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