Now that AOL Inc. (NYSE: AOL) is being acquired by Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ), the big question on Wall Street, Main Street and Cyber-Street has to be what this means for the likes of Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO). After all, Yahoo is considered by many as the other remaining prize in online media besides AOL — and activists have continued beating their drums that they still want more than the tripling of Yahoo’s share price.
24/7 Wall St. has already shown what Verizon gets by acquiring AOL. We have also indicated how a higher price could work into the fold for AOL, even if Tim Armstrong has said he is committed to selling to Verizon. So, let’s think about what this could mean for Yahoo.
The first thing to consider is that Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE: BABA) is a factor for any Yahoo buyer. Companies do not want to pay up for a tracking stock or for a minority interest, and that has nothing to do with Alibaba doing well on its last earnings. Some investors have said that they view Yahoo’s more than $40 billion market cap as being 80% to 90% Alibaba — and then there is the Yahoo! Japan stake, which Yahoo already has indicated that it may unlock that value as well.
It is hard to value Yahoo on a standalone basis. Shareholders today could be getting big checks after the Alibaba tracking stock is issued, and then there is that Yahoo! Japan would-be bonus. The remaining part of Yahoo is viewed by analysts as profitable, but in a climate where organic growth is hard for everyone. Activists have pushed for an AOL-Yahoo combination, but perhaps another home might be welcome as well if the price is right.
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Of course, Yahoo has many units from acquisitions that are of value: BrightRoll (online video ads), Flurry (mobile analytics), Tumblr (microblogging for multimedia and content), Summly (news aggregation), Interclick (ad tech) and quite literally dozens of more companies, platforms and app/software players.
As far as who might want Yahoo: Would Verizon dare to try to cobble together an AOL-Yahoo deal? It can certainly afford it. But what about the likes of Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA), Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS), CBS Corp. (NYSE: CBS) or Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN)? The opportunities are endless, but we are taking a look here more closely at each of these.
Comcast wanted Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC), but the deal was set to be blocked. They acquired NBC Universal, and that gave them CNBC, which already has a deal with Yahoo! Finance. And we cannot forget that Yahoo has been looking to expand its own video and content efforts, all of which Comcast would seemingly be interested in.
What about Microsoft? Satya Nadella has been looking to focus on the cloud and mobile above all else. Microsoft still has the search pact, even if terms were renegotiated or if a deal may change ahead. Honestly, it would be easy enough to justify a deal under any normal circumstances, and Microsoft has so much cash overseas that maybe it could carry on with an Alibaba deal better than most companies. The question is if a combined Yahoo and MSN work as a two-platform system in a changing world.
What about AT&T? It still has its own Web efforts, and Verizon taking a huge leap into AOL might make AT&T Think that Yahoo has most of what AOL has — or easily could. AT&T has to get the DirecTV (NASDAQ: DTV) acquisition closed first so it has no regulatory issues, but it would seem that AT&T could easily argue that Verizon owning AOL makes it a must that AT&T own Yahoo. Would AT&T’s pact with Google be at risk if it acquired Yahoo?
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Now, what about getting more ambition here with Disney? Everything touched by Disney has worked out, and Bob Iger can get away with a “just trust me” answer without question now. To top it off, Disney has had a hard time getting its own mobile and online communities really going hard. It could be a fit if Disney wants to own Yahoo. There is also the notion that Disney has ESPN, ABC, Disney channels and more. Some of these could be integrated into Yahoo with little effort. Oh, and Yahoo recently announced an expansion of its relationship with Disney/ABC Television Group.
CBS could even be a potential Yahoo owner. It is worth $30 billion or so, and a post-Alibaba and post-Japan stub might give CBS more of that online reach it wants.
Amazon might love to own Yahoo too. Jeff Bezos personally bought the Washington Post. Amazon is into just about everything already, and it has the market cap and can easily get the resources for such a deal. Sure, the Alibaba tie would have to get severed so no one-world e-commerce regulatory issues are brought up. But Amazon could easily roll Yahoo into the fold if Bezos wanted to.
The reality is that Yahoo can act as a standalone online media outfit if it wants to. Or it can jump on board with a larger player after the Alibaba and Japan operations are unlocked from the value. Yahoo has been overly criticized, at least that is the take here, by outsiders who think that growth is endless just because other online companies have risen above and beyond. It is important to remember that prior to Marissa Mayer arriving, Yahoo leadership was almost in permanent transition.
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Guessing a price on or a core value on Yahoo is also highly subjective, as beauty is in the eye of the beholder. A dozen other companies could make a play for Yahoo as well. It is important to remember a few things:
- Yahoo has its own ad-tech for video and mobile, and efforts are being built up around this.
- Yahoo! Finance has the widest reach of all financial and market-oriented sites.
- Yahoo has sites managed and dozens of units that are running on standby.
- Yahoo has millions upon millions of email accounts it hosts.
- Alexa ranks Yahoo as the number four top website in the world.
- Yahoo has little debt, and it still has over $10 billion in cash and short-term investments (not including the Alibaba stake).
Again, many of the points have been glossed over here. There are too many would-be destinations where Yahoo could end up. There is also the possibility that the best thing Yahoo can do is to stand alone and direct its own future.
Yahoo shares were up fractionally at $43.93 in late morning trading on Tuesday. The low-premium deal for AOL may be one issue, but as you can tell there are so many angles to view Yahoo on that investors might be taking the easy road and are only willing to consider Yahoo on a standalone basis. Yahoo’s 52-week range is $32.93 to $52.62, and the consensus analyst target now is up close to almost $55.00.
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