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How Analysts Are Turning Twitter Into a Battleground Stock

Twitter Inc. (NYSE: TWTR) came crashing down after it reported its third-quarter financial results on Tuesday evening. This was immediately followed by a storm of analyst calls suggesting the next move for this social media giant. Most of the calls were mixed, but across the board price targets were lowered.

The company had $0.10 in earnings per share (EPS) on $569 million in revenue. That compared to consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters of $0.05 in EPS on revenue of $559.59 million. In the same period of the previous year, the social media giant posted EPS of $0.01 and $361.27 million in revenue.

Total average monthly active users (MAUs) were 320 million for the third quarter, up 11% year over year, and compared to 316 million in the previous quarter. Excluding SMS Fast Followers, MAUs totaled 307 million for the third quarter, up 8% year over year, and compared to 304 million in the previous quarter. Mobile MAUs represented roughly 80% of total MAUs.

In terms of guidance, Twitter expects revenue to be in the range of $695 million to $710 million for the fourth quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $739.73 million.

Canaccord Genuity maintained a Buy rating for Twitter but lowered its price target to $38 from $40, implying upside of 31% from current prices. According to the firm, Twitter reported solid third-quarter results with in-line MAU results and revenue that exceeded the high end of guidance. However, the fourth-quarter outlook was weak, signaling lack of visibility on the advertiser front that is troubling given typical seasonal strength.

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The firm noted that it is inclined to look past the fourth quarter to the next year or two. While it acknowledges the near-term challenges, Canaccord Genuity believes there are many chances for things to go right against low expectations moving forward. As a result, the firm is inclined to stick with its out-of-consensus Buy rating.

Wells Fargo kept its Outperform rating, and slightly changed its valuation range to $32.00 to $34.00 from a prior $33.00 to $35.00 range. The firm’s summary was that Twitter’s results were ahead of expectations, but this was another “forward guide step-down.” Another point was that the active user growth looks stuck in neutral, and that advertising growth is slowing while the network business is building share.

Merrill Lynch maintained a Neutral rating and backed it up in its report:

MAU growth soft in the third quarter and will likely remain an overhang as fourth quarter MAU growth should remain muted. Lowering our price objective to $32 (25x 2016 EBITDA). We expect the historical multiple gap to Facebook (at 20x street EBITDA) to narrow.

24/7 Wall Street highlighted a few other key analysts that made calls following the report:

  • Nomura maintained a Neutral rating but lowered its price target to $30 from $33.
  • JPMorgan has an Overweight rating but lowered its price target to $46 from $50.
  • Cowen has a Market Perform rating but lowered its price target of $30 to $26.
  • Jefferies has a Buy rating but lowered its price target to $42 from $56.
  • Morgan Stanley has an Underweight rating and lowered its price target to $22 from $24.
  • Barclays has an Equal Weight rating and lowered its price target to $33 from $40.

Shares of Twitter were last seen trading down 6.1% to $29.42 Wednesday, with a consensus analyst price target of $37.62 and a 52-week trading range of $21.01 to $53.49.

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