What to Look for in Pandora Earnings

Pandora Media Inc. (NYSE: P) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year results after markets close Thursday. The streaming music company is expected to post earnings per share (EPS) of $0.07 and revenues of $331.83 million for the quarter and full-year EPS of $0.11 on revenues of $1.16 billion.

In the same periods last year, the company reported quarterly EPS of $0.18 on $268 million in revenues and full-year EPS of $0.20 on revenues of $906.62 million.

When Pandora reported third-quarter earnings last November, the company cut its fourth-quarter revenue forecast to a range of $325 million to $330 million, and that helped take the shares down. Another, perhaps bigger, problem was listener numbers, which were higher year over year, but down sequentially.

Since the beginning of the year, Pandora’s shares are down nearly 40%, and what investors worry about most are those active listener numbers. Advertisers pay for eyeballs (or in Pandora’s case, ears) and the more listeners, the more advertisers will pay. The converse is also true, and that is what led to a lowered revenue forecast.
[recirclink id=313896]
Analysts remain positive on the stock. Here are some ratings since December:

• Wells Fargo reiterated a Hold and a price target of $29.81.
• Credit Agricole raised its rating from Underperform to Outperform.
• CLSA also raised its rating from Underperform to Outperform.
• Gabelli reiterated a Buy rating.
• Mizuho raised its rating from Neutral to Buy and put a price target of $28.50 on the stock.
• Maxim Group raised its rating from Neutral to Buy with a $28.50 price target.

Now that Apple Music has entered the streaming music business and competition from other subscriber-based services like Amazon and Spotify has toughened, Pandora is branching out to live music on its own platform. The company recently acquired the assets of now-defunct Rdio, and that gives Pandora an opportunity to join the ranks of music streamers that offer curated playlists.

Pandora is trying to reposition itself to compete better with the likes of Apple, Amazon and Spotify. That’s not cheap, and the company has spent real money to get its foot in the door. The payoff, if it comes, is down the road. Investors appear to worry that the payoff is too far down the road and, unless Pandora can allay some of that worry, shares will continue to be pressured.

The stock traded down about 1.2% Wednesday morning, at $8.31 in a 52-week range of $7.37 to $22.60. The consensus price target from 29 brokerage firms is $18.64, yielding an implied upside of 124%.