Why Disney Still Looks Attractive to Wall Street and Main Street

Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) reported fiscal second-quarter financial results after the markets closed on Tuesday. Consequently these earnings did not live up to the expectations of investors and analysts. As one of the larger Dow components, there was a blizzard of analyst calls in the wake of this earnings report.

24/7 Wall St. has included some highlights from the earnings report, as well as what analysts are saying about Disney after the fact.

The company had $1.36 in earnings per share (EPS) on $12.97 billion in revenue. That compared to consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters of $1.40 in EPS on revenue of $13.19 billion. The same period from last year had $1.23 in EPS on $12.46 billion in revenue.

Since last summer there has been a concern at Disney surrounding what the company needs to do with its ESPN segment. The question is whether to sell it, spin it off or keep it. ESPN’s performance this quarter helped drive operating income in the Cable Networks sub-segment.

It’s worth noting that at the end of the earnings conference call, CEO Bob Eiger pointed out that not a single question on the call was about the Studios business, and that has been the biggest area of growth for Disney movie franchises.
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Credit Suisse trimmed its EPS forecasts by 1% and 2%, to $5.80 and $6.16, in 2016 and 2017 respectively. The previous estimates were $5.84 and $6.27, respectively. The firm also lowered its price target to $128 from $130 after the earnings report. Credit Suisse continues to believe the bundle will have enduring consumer value long term, and highlighted upside risks to its new Cable Networks forecasts from new distribution strategies. After a 20% derating, the brokerage firm sees improving risk/reward at these levels and reiterated its Outperform rating.

Jefferies reiterated a Hold rating with a $92 price target, noting that fiscal second-quarter results were mixed, with upside in the Parks and Studio segments offset by weaker Media and Consumer results. Jefferies sees downside risk to Cable segment EBIT, tough Studio comps and a deceleration in domestic Park EBIT growth in fiscal 2017 and beyond.

Merrill Lynch detailed in its report:

Reiterate Buy on quality growth story Although DIS sentiment remains pressured by ESPN concerns, Zootopia, The Jungle Book and Captain America: Civil War strength reinforce the value of DIS’ branded content strategy. We remain bullish on DIS’ solid pipeline of LucasFilm/Pixar/Marvel/Disney Animation theatrical/CP fare, best in class Theme Parks and strong Media Network brands. Key NT catalysts incl.: (1) 5/27 release of Alice Through The Looking Glass, (2) 6/16 opening of Shanghai Disney, (3) 6/17 release of Finding Dory and (4) 12/16 release of Rogue One: A Star Wars Story. With DIS trading at a -10% P/E disc. To the market (and a -40% disc. on a PEG basis), we reiterate our Buy rating on shares.

Ultimately, Merrill Lynch believes that Disney shares will outperform peers given the exposure to accelerating Parks & Resorts fundamentals, a surge in free cash flow, an increasingly positive Studio outlook, steady growth at Media Networks and improving profitability at Interactive.

Argus maintained its Buy rating on Disney with a price target of $129. While increased investment in Shanghai Disneyland and other projects has weighed on earnings this year, Disney is also positioning itself for long-term growth. In addition, this independent research firm expects the company’s Media Networks businesses to continue to perform well, with a strong scatter advertising market and a robust upcoming film slate.

Shares of Disney ended the week at $100.57, down 1.1% on Friday, with a consensus analyst price target of $110.72 and a 52-week trading range of $86.25 to $122.08.