With days to go until the game, Super Bowl prices are falling and quantity has doubled since championship Sunday. Now the question is ‘how low will prices go’?

To answer that questions, we’re using some history, specifically prices for the 2012 Super Bowl, which was the last Patriots Super Bowl with comparable demand. This year’s game falls into the medium-low demand category, as did the 2012 game. The 2015 Super Bowl, which the Patriots were also in, was a very high demand market, largely as the result of the Seahawks proximity to Glendale, Arizona.

The chart below shows that if 2017 follows the same trend as 2012, the cheapest ticket available on game day will be around $1,300. The one word of caution for fans looking to get to the game is that there is less than half the quantify available this year compared to the same day in 2012, which means prices may not get as low as that. That said, because On Location Experience is holding inventory back and no one know how much they have available, there may be more supply available than in 2012, which could drive prices even lower. The lowest day of prices we’ve tracked in eight years was $1,062 in 2013 for the 49ers vs. Ravens. If it goes that low, the market will have moved from the most expensive ever to the cheapest ever, which suggests the need for greater transparency about how much inventory is available in the market day one.

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