Pandora Media Inc. (NYSE: P) might feel lucky after its earnings report. It is sometimes the case that internal workings and poor fundamentals of a company get overlooked because of outside developments. The financial picture for Pandora is that the online music streaming company has struggled to get past a money-losing business model for years now. The outside news that may have saved the day is that Pandora has a board change, has an outside investment commitment from KKR and may be a target of a buyout.
What all of this added up to is a mixed reaction, and it is often better to judge a big piece of news by the continued reaction in the following days rather than by the initial reaction to the news. After all, short sellers often create whip-around trading moves as they rush to cover shorts or as they pile on more short sale orders in the aftermath of news. Some analysts are just not convinced a buyout is really coming for Pandora.
After reporting a miss of first-quarter revenue estimates, Pandora lowered its second-quarter revenue expectations and trimmed its annual guidance for 2017. This probably sounded familiar to many of Pandora’s long-term investors. What kept the wheels from falling off the cart here was that Pandora also announced that it is exploring strategic options that could include a sale of the company, but it also has secured a $150 million investment from private equity firm KKR & Co. L.P. (NYSE: KKR).
Pandora also has announced major changes to its board of directors, which would be aimed at appeasing Keith Meister of Corvex Management and his activist campaign against the internet music company. KKR partner Richard Sarnoff is joining Pandora’s board of directors.
Corvex may have been one issue and a sale potential is of course another, but KKR’s market cap was last seen north of $15 billion. That means this $150 million investment is barely a 1% incremental effort versus the entire value of Pandora, while Pandora still has a full market value of almost $2.5 billion.
Pandora broke out its first-quarter metrics on growth of revenue, subscriptions and ticketing. Total consolidated revenue was up 6% to $316.0 million, with advertising revenue up 1% to $223.3 million. Total subscribers increased from 3.93 million a year ago to 4.71 million, and subscription and other revenue was up 19% to $64.9 million. Ticketing service revenue was $27.8 million, a 25% year-over-year increase.
Where metrics remain stale for Pandora are in earnings. The company said that its net loss was $132.3 million on a GAAP basis, versus a net loss of $115.1 million in the same quarter last year. Its adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $71.3 million, compared to a loss of $57.4 million in the same quarter last year.
Then there are the internal listener metrics, both of which declined. Total listener hours were 5.21 billion for the first quarter of 2017, compared to 5.52 billion for the same period of the prior year. Active listeners were 76.7 million at the end of the first quarter of 2017, compared to 79.4 million for the same period of the prior year.
Pandora ended the first quarter with $203.0 million in cash and investments, down from $243.3 million at the end of the prior quarter. Cash used in operating activities was $36.0 million for the first quarter of 2017, versus $13.1 million in the same period of the prior year.
24/7 Wall St.Where things will get tough to understand is that Pandora is expected to keep losing money. Its subscription business is the key, but Thomson Reuters now does not see Pandora making money on adjusted earnings until 2019, but still posting a GAAP loss that year ($0.25 adjusted per share vs. −$0.28 GAAP per share).
Again, analysts have released some rather mixed views in the 24 hours after Pandora’s loss and would-be sale effort. One theme that simply does not seem to be the norm is an overwhelming bias that Pandora investors should be expecting any mega-premium buyout price. That being said, investors should know that anything is possible and some other buyer might be able to do more for Pandora and its subscribers than the company has been able to do on its own.
Credit Suisse maintained an Outperform rating but lowered the price target to $12 from $14. Its opinion is that Pandora needs to either get big or get acquired. Credit Suisse’s blue-sky scenario in which everything goes better is as high as $23, but its grey-sky scenario, where things slide, is a $7 price target.
Merrill Lynch reiterated its Underperform rating, with an unimpressive $9 price objective for Pandora. Its view is that take-out speculation will support the stock, but the firm sees its business remaining challenged, whereby Pandora will need to restart its user growth to attract a buyer willing to pay a premium. Its investment rationale said:
Pandora is an investment for both the trend towards media storage and streaming from the Cloud and the rapid adoption of mob. Internetconnected devices. We note though that listening hours are slowing and comp. risk increasing, driving our rating. Pandora’s Internet-based radio service should continue to take share from traditional radio as users gravitate towards online streaming greater flexibility, but faces competition from On-Demand and Satellite radio competitors.
24/7 Wall St.Pacific Crest has gone as far as saying that it does not recommend that its clients own Pandora, while it did say that the near-term risk/reward is more neutral.
S&P’s CFRA equity report actually maintained its Buy rating and $14 price target. That report still included an increase to its loss estimates in 2017 and 2018, but it set a 2019 earnings per share estimate of $0.30, as more spending will support subscription offerings. The firm sees a continued movement toward a “strategic alternative.”
Here are how some other analysts viewed Pandora after earnings and after news of the board changes and KKR deal:
- B. Riley lowered its target price to $15 while maintaining a Buy rating.
- Cowen has a Market Perform rating and lowered its price target to $8 from $9.
- Instinet has a Neutral rating and lowered its target price to $12 from $14.
- JPMorgan has an Overweight rating and lowered its price target from $19 to $18.
- Stifel Nicolaus reiterated its Buy rating.
24/7 Wall St.Pandora’s shares hit a new 52-week low of $9.41 on Tuesday. The stock managed to recover from the lows and close down just 4.4% at $9.94, compared with a 52-week high of $14.98. The reaction on Wednesday had shares down another 2.3% at $9.71, though shares had not retested the lows of the prior day.
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