PredictIt is not a normal national poll. It is, rather, a huge set of bets with odds based on how the bettors think an election will finish. However, it has been uncannily accurate, so its results are valuable.
When the pool odds were measured for who will be the Democratic nominee for 2020, the latest figure for Bernie Sanders was $.45 out of a dollar. Bloomberg can in at $.22, followed by Biden at $.12 and Pete Buttigieg at $.10. Hilary Clinton was at $.06.
PredictIt claims:
PredictIt’s market data offers researchers a wealth of information that can be used to further our understanding of a wide array of subjects in fields of study as diverse as microeconomics, political behavior, computer science and game theory. PredictIt is excited to support the work of our researcher partners as they push the boundaries of human knowledge.
The project was created and is run by researchers at the Victory University of Wellington.
According to The Washington Post:
Though PredictIt’s spokesman Will Jennings says it’s difficult to make a “blanket accuracy assessment, given the variety of markets,” he said the D.C.-based site’s handicappers are correct 70 to 80 percent of the time.
The data also shows $.55 of $1 bet believe there will be a brokered convention, which has not happened in decades
PredictIt betting information puts Sanders in first place to win the Nevada caucus at $.80. Biden is forecast to win South Carolina at $.53. Many analysts believe that without a strong showing in South Caroline, that Biden may loss his chance to win the nomination.
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