Many analysts and observers of the aircraft market have suggested that Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) may face a financial issue in the transition from its current version of the 777 twin-engine, dual-aisle jet to the new 777X, which is due into service in 2020. Boeing may have felt the point more sharply Friday morning as Air France-KLM announced that it will defer receipt of 10 777-300ERs that were due to be delivered over the next two years.

The airline’s chief financial officer said that the airline does not feel the same pressure to add the planes now that fuel prices have fallen. As of December 5, the price of jet fuel had fallen by a third year-over-year to $2.04 a gallon ($85.80 a barrel) on average, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The calculation is simple: Lower fuel prices lower realized gains from more fuel-efficient planes.

The implication for Boeing is that its current production rate of about 8.3 planes a month (100 per year) as the company transitions to the 777X will have to be lowered because the 777-300ER is not significantly more fuel-efficient than earlier models of the 777 family. Boeing says it will end 2014 with orders for about 60 777s, the high-end of a range of 40 to 60 that the company says it needs to maintain current production rates.

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Boeing’s order book for the 777-300ER at the end of November stood at 231. The company has one remaining order for the 777-200LR and 35 orders for the freighter version of the aircraft. That is a total of 267 planes. At a rate of 8.3 planes a month (100 per year), those orders will not take the company through 2017, especially if more orders are deferred or cancelled altogether. Expecting more orders for the current model while fuel prices are low and falling is probably not realistic. Even if Boeing adds 40 orders for the 777-300ER in each of the next three years, the production rate will have to come down or the new orders will not last until the 777X goes into production.

Boeing’s shares closed up about 0.5% on Thursday and added another 0.58% in Friday’s premarket to quote at $126.40 in a 52-week range of $116.32 to $144.57.

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