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Why Analysts Are Not Chasing Boeing Endlessly Higher After Investor Day
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Buckingham Research summed up the general feeling, noting that Boeing offered a lot of information but not much that was new. According to Leeham News and Comment, in Buckingham’s note following Tuesday’s conference the analysts focused on Boeing’s 777 program. The analysts, and many investors, keep trying to pin down Boeing on its transition plan for the 777 to the 777X that is due to enter service in 2020.
There are two concerns about the 777: first, that margins will degrade as Boeing has to offer the plane at steeper discounts in order to sell 40 to 60 of the planes annually and keep the line open until the 777X is ready. Boeing claims that pricing has stabilized, and Buckingham noted that in its view, “[Boeing] has been able to sustain 777 program margins largely due to effective supply chain management, automation, and productivity initiatives which have resulted in a 30% reduction in factory flow time.”
The other concern is about orders for the 777 and the so-called bridge to 777X. Boeing said that 777 production is about 55% sold in 2017 and admitted that it would be difficult to get new orders for the plan to fill all its open delivery positions. The company says it has flexibility to manage its orders and deliveries, which after 2017 consists mostly of options and letters of intent. This gives the company flexibility, which it can combine with sales campaigns and maintain stable production rates on the 777.
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Buckingham demurs:
We think that’s going to be very difficult. [Boeing] needs to alert its supply chain as much as 18 months in advance of any production rate change. Consequently, 777 orders over the next few months could be critical to [Boeing] and the ability to bridge the production gap between the 777 Classic and 777X. While we believe a modest rate cut (of 1/mo) is likely in the stock, we think [Boeing] could reduce 777 production by 4/mo which we estimate would be a $1.25-$1.50/share impact to [Boeing]’s 2017E [free cash flow].
Last September Buckingham dropped its rating on Boeing from Neutral to Underperform.
Analysts from Wells Fargo share concerns about the changeover from the 777 to the 777X. Here is what the Wells Fargo analysts had to say about the 777 bridge program:
Boeing expects to maintain 777-family production at 100/year (8.3/mo). Beginning in late 2017/early 2018, we expect Boeing to begin layering in 777X units into production. Essentially, Boeing will add “blanks” to the production process because initial 777X manufacturing will take longer than the time for one existing 777. For example, if one 777X is feathered in it may replace two or three 777-300ER production slots. Therefore, Boeing can still assert it has maintained its 8.3/mo production rate, but might be delivering at a lower rate – perhaps 6/mo – and therefore would need to sell fewer units to bridge production to the 777X.
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Why this is so important to Boeing and Boeing investors is that the 777-300ER is the plane that sits at the top of the company’s price list of currently available models. At a list price of $330 million each, the 777-300ER costs nearly $90 million more than a 787-9. And as the Buckingham analysts noted, free cash flow takes a major hit if Boeing cannot deliver eight to nine of the planes every month.
In October Wells Fargo cut its rating on Boeing stock from Buy to Hold and cut its price target from $143 to $139.
Analysts from Canaccord Genuity wrote that Boeing is seeing no increase in pricing pressure, that cancellations and deferrals currently run at historical lows, and that replacement rates appear to be holding at 40% to 50% of deliveries. Canaccord noted that orders from low-cost carriers in Asia have been pulled forward as a response to the possible closing of the U.S. Export-Import Bank, which must be reauthorized by Congress by the end of June. Boeing said that such orders amount to less than 5% of the company’s backlog.
Canaccord believes that Boeing will take 737 production up to around 60 a month as the company builds its confidence that it can sustain that rate for at least three years without pulling production forward. The analysts specifically say that Boeing’s master contract with Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc. (NYSE: SPR) is a hold-up here and that Spirit’s recalcitrance may end up getting the supplier the deal it wants.
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As we noted in our earlier report on the conference, Boeing thinks it will win at least one of the two major defense contracts still to be awarded. The long-range strike bomber (B-3) is expected to be awarded this year, while the new Air Force training jet (called the T-X) to replace the T-38 is still seeking funding.
Canaccord said it is maintaining its Buy rating on Boeing stock and its $165 price target, which is just above the consensus of $163.
Credit Suisse is also bullish on Boeing. Here is what the bank’s analyst wrote:
If everything works out perfectly, the continued rate ramp, solid defense performance, and buybacks could drive peak [free cash flow] (2018 or so) approaching $20 per share, which should yield a $200 share price or better.
The analysts did admit that their assertion depends on the 787 hitting its targeted cost curve and that the 777 bridge had to perform as Boeing believes it will with no production or margin cuts. If Boeing cannot do those two things, Credit Suisse sees peak free cash flow in the mid-teens and a valuation on the stock of around $152, the bank’s current price target.
Credit Suisse has a price target of $152 on the stock and a Neutral rating.
UBS commented on Boeing’s productivity plans:
[Boeing] did not specify forward productivity targets or how much it expects to keep vs passing on through pricing. While most of what we heard around productivity initiatives was similar to recent pronouncements including lean, Partnering for Success (PFS) and [Boeing]’s own focus on more efficient program development and cost of quality, detail provided around automation investments at [Boeing Commercial Airplanes] was mostly new.
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The significant naysayer in all this remains Goldman Sachs, which had a Sell rating on the stock going into the conference and maintained that rating coming out. Here is the short version of the analysts’ view:
We continue to expect new aircraft order intake and production growth to slow, and expect cash flow to disappoint. We see risks from global growth, lower fuel, a stronger dollar and heightened supply.
Boeing projected a commercial jet book-to-bill ratio of about 1x for 2015, but Goldman wrote that it expects orders to keep slowing down. Goldman also sees risk to cash expectations as reductions in costs for the 787 are “very challenging” and because “advances help so much today.”
Goldman set a price target of $132 on Boeing stock back in February when it downgraded the stock from Hold to Sell.
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