Following Boeing Co.’s (NYSE: BA) disappointing 2016 forecast, the company finally announced a production rate cut to the current version of the 777 from 8.33 per month (100 per year) to seven per month. In reality, Boeing delivered 21 of the planes in the fourth quarter, a production rate of, wait for it, seven per month.
Why Boeing has delayed making an announcement of a production cut that has been virtually inevitable since at least mid-2014 is anyone’s guess. A cynical observer could say that the company was trying to hide a soft spot, but that’s not entirely true. The soft spot has been visible for a long time.
In order to have a smooth transition between the 777 and the new 777X, Boeing needed orders for the 777 to total more than 60 a year, the top of its expected order range for 2015. The company even came up with a new way of counting phantom 777s called “feathering in some blanks” by which the company meant it would leave open spaces on the 777 production line to accommodate the transition to 777X production, which is likely to begin sometime in 2018. The first delivery of a 777X is not due until 2020.
Leeham News reported on Tuesday that it its analysts believe Boeing needs to sell more than 200 777s between now and 2021 to bridge the gap to full production of the new 777X. Boeing took orders for just 38 of the planes in 2015 and its order book for the 777-300ER and 777F totaled just 218 at the end of December. Leeham is saying that Boeing needs at least 200 net new orders to bridge the 777-777X gap.
Boeing tried to take some of the sting out of the rate cut on the 777 by announcing a 737 production rate increase from 42 a month currently to 57 month beginning in 2019. The company already has said it will raise production to 47 a month in 2017 and to 52 planes a month in 2018 in increments. Archrival Airbus announced an increase to 60 planes a month by mid-2019 for its A320 competitor to the 737.
Boeing stock got hammered Wednesday morning on the company’s weak forecast. The production cut on 777s is perhaps the single most influential factor in that forecast. The surprising thing is not so much the cut as it is the size of the cut. It is possible to argue that Boeing should have lowered the production rate on the 777 to six or even five per month. Had it done that however, the forecast would have been even weaker, and that’s not what the company wanted.
Shares traded down more than 6% around noon Wednesday to $119.40, after posting a new 52-week low of $115.02 earlier in the day. The stock’s 52-week high is $158.83.
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