Turkey is a unique member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). It has the second-largest standing army in the alliance, a thriving domestic drone industry, and an absolutely crucial geographic position. Turkey is both the gatekeeper to the Black Sea and the land bridge to the Middle East. 

Yet, for all these important qualities, Turkey marches to its own beat diplomatically and sometimes at odds with other NATO members. This article will examine how Turkey’s flexibility has created tension within NATO and what that could mean for the alliance’s future.

Why This Matters

Turkey’s apparent drift from the West is a major cause for concern for NATO. While Turkey insists it is still committed to NATO after 72 years, recent actions raise questions about Ankara’s future in the alliance. Examining the source of this discontent is key to understanding how Turkey can remain a valued member of NATO.

Historical Background

The Republic of Turkey rose from the ashes of the Ottoman Empire in 1923, with the capital relocated from Istanbul to Ankara. After the disaster of World War One, Turkey stayed neutral between the wars and managed to stay out of World War Two until the result was beyond doubt. In February 1945, Turkey declared war on Germany but Turkish troops never took part in any fighting. In the postwar realignment, Turkey pivoted towards the West and accepted American military assistance to modernize its armed forces. Turkey sent soldiers to support the UN forces in Korea and the Turkish Brigade performed admirably in combat. Of the 15,000 troops sent by Turkey, 700 died and more than 2000 were wounded. Turkey joined NATO in 1952 alongside Greece. 

NATO Membership

Turkey expressed interest in joining NATO when the alliance first formed but it wasn’t until 1951 that the United States took that interest seriously. Turkey had a great deal to gain from joining NATO as a guarantee against an invasion from the Soviet Union. Equally, Turkey had a lot to offer the alliance. Turkey’s control over the Dardanelles and the Bosphorus Straits means no ship can enter or leave the Black Sea without its express consent. 

The terms of maritime passage through the Bosphorus were outlined in the Montreux Convention of 1936. Among other terms, aircraft carriers cannot pass through the strait and there are heavy restrictions on what ships of war are allowed through. Turkey’s membership secures the alliance’s southeastern flank and passage to and from the Black Sea. Furthermore, Turkey is a bridge to Asia and borders Armenia, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, and Syria in the east. The Turkish military has conducted cross-border operations against Kurdish fighters in Syria and northern Iraq for years. 

Turkey held up Finland and Sweden’s applications to join NATO, and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan accused both Nordic countries of aiding “terrorists” and demanded the extradition of Kurdish terror suspects from both countries. After delays, both countries were allowed into NATO, Finland in 2023 and Sweden in 2024. 

The EU 

Most European members of NATO either are or were (in Britain’s case) also members of the European Union. Turkey first engaged with the European Economic Community (the precursor to the EU) in 1959 which led to the Ankara Agreement in 1963. The agreement laid the foundations for a customs union with the EU and eventual full membership. However, Turkey’s ascension hasn’t been realized for a variety of reasons.

First, the Cyprus problem is ongoing and needs to be resolved before Turkey can join the EU. Second, Turkey hasn’t met all of the conditions laid out in the Copenhagen Criteria (1993). However, reforms were nudging Ankara in the right direction. Third, Turkey has to grapple with internal politics – secularizing education runs contrary to the wishes of conservative Muslim groups. Additionally, there is skepticism among some European nations that a majority-Muslim state with an authoritarian leader can fully integrate with the secular, liberal democracies of Europe. France and Germany are leading voices against Turkey’s ascension. The European Parliament voted to suspend Turkey’s EU bid in 2019. 

BRICS

As Turkey’s ascension bid to the European Union goes nowhere, Ankara began to explore establishing ties with another group: BRICS. BRICS is a loose coalition of non-aligned states seeking to establish cultural and economic links. The group’s name comes from its founding members: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Unlike the EU, BRICS doesn’t require new members to meet certain conditions. Russia is quite receptive to Turkey’s interest in joining the group. 

Turkey’s interest is at an early stage and no formal talks have taken place but the prospect is alarming to other NATO members. Internally, Turkey will face political barriers to joining as President Erdoğan’s party lost ground to the secular CHP party in the 2024 Turkish elections. External pressure from Washington and other allies will almost certainly be another major barrier to Turkey joining BRICS. 

Greece

Turkey and Greece joined NATO together in 1952. The two nations have a complex and often adversarial history. Greece and Turkey (as its Ottoman predecessor) fought several wars in the 19th and early 20th century. The Treaty of Lausanne (1923) established the modern borders of Greece and Turkey and led to a warming of relations in the interwar years. In World War Two, neutral Turkey helped relieve a famine in Axis-occupied Greece. Turkey shipped over 50,000 tons of aid to Greece from 1941-46. 

Whatever goodwill developed between Athens and Ankara broke down after the Second World War. Greece regained control from Italy over several islands in the Aegean Sea in 1947, many of these tiny islands are uninhabited but within striking distance of Turkey’s coastline. In January 1996 the two countries almost went to war over an incident on the tiny, unpopulated island of Imia (Kardak in Turkey). The US resolved the dispute but tension ignited once more when the Greeks shot down a Turkish F-16 in October. 

The other major bone of contention between Greece and Turkey is Cyprus which has substantial Greek and Turkish communities. The troubles stretch back to the 1950s but intensified in 1974. Turkey invaded Cyprus in 1974 after a Greek-backed coup. Today the island is divided by the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and the Republic of Cyprus. 50 years later, the Cyprus Problem has yet to be resolved.

Russia 

Just like Greece, Turkey has a long and complex history with Russia. The Ottomans fought a dozen wars with the Russian Empire over three and half centuries. Modern relations between Turkey and Russia are far more cordial. Ankara depends heavily on Moscow for its energy needs and won’t adhere to American sanctions against Russia. Russian companies in Turkey increased almost tenfold in just two years. Turkey angered and was sanctioned by the United States when it purchased S-400 air defense systems from Russia. 

Turkey’s flexible approach to diplomacy is best illustrated by its response to the war in Ukraine. Turkey continues to purchase Russian oil which finances the Russian war effort while at the same time, it ships military aid to Ukraine. Turkey also helped broker a deal to allow Ukrainian grain exports to pass through the Black Sea though Russia has since pulled out of the deal. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has met with both Ukrainian President Voldomyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin in the last six months. He has offered to mediate a peace summit between the two countries.

The United States 

Turkey’s relationship with the United States has cooled in recent years. As previously mentioned, the United States helped modernize Turkey’s armed forces in the immediate postwar years. Washington was a key supporter of Turkey’s bid to join NATO and Ankara hosted American nuclear weapons from 1961-3 at great risk to its own safety. The missiles were withdrawn in a secret deal that helped defuse the Cuban Missile Crisis. 

Turkey played a limited role in the Gulf War in 1991 but refused to participate in the 2003 conflict and wouldn’t allow coalition forces to open a northern front. Turkey’s parliament even rejected a $15 billion aid package to allow 62,000 American troops to deploy in its territory. Turkish-US relations deteriorated further in July 2003 when American soldiers arrested and interrogated Turkish soldiers operating in northern Iraq. They were soon returned but the incident showed cracks in the relationship between two allies. 

Turkey was kicked out of the F-35 program for the S-400 deal with Russia. Washington cited Turkey’s violation of section 231 of the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA):

The United States made clear to Turkey at the highest levels and on numerous occasions that its purchase of the S-400 system would endanger the security of U.S. military technology and personnel and provide substantial funds to Russia’s defense sector, as well as Russian access to the Turkish armed forces and defense industry.  Turkey nevertheless decided to move ahead with the procurement and testing of the S-400, despite the availability of alternative, NATO-interoperable systems to meet its defense requirements.  This decision resulted in Turkey’s suspension and pending removal from the global F-35 Joint Strike Fighter partnership.

Turkey was sanctioned again by the United States in 2023 for helping Russia evade American sanctions over the war in Ukraine. Erdoğan has also been extremely critical of Israel’s conduct in the war in Gaza which has only furthered the rift with Washington. Turkey’s war of words with Israel is nothing new but recent comments have heightened tensions. The Turkish President appeared to suggest Turkey could intervene in the conflict in a July 2024 speech:

We need to be very strong so that Israel cannot do these ridiculous things to Palestine. Just as we entered Karabakh, just as we entered Libya, we can do something similar to them

His comments were roundly condemned by American and Israeli political figures and far-right Dutch politician Geert Wilders called for Turkey’s expulsion from NATO. 

Conclusion

Turkey’s unusual approach to diplomacy is reflective of its unique strategic position. The country straddles two continents and grapples internally between conservative and secular forces. Ankara still has a lot to offer NATO in the modern era. Turkey has a large and well-equipped army and a thriving domestic drone industry. Its control of the Black Sea is vital for securing NATO’s southern flank. With further cooperation with Bulgaria and Romania, Turkey could establish an effective strategic partnership in the Black Sea with its NATO allies. Equally, Turkey could be pushed in a more dangerous direction for NATO. 

As Turkey’s defense minister, Yaşar Güler, suggested, disagreements should be expected in a large alliance:

In an environment where 32 allies are together, it is unthinkable to have the same views on every issue

Turkey has also reached its spending target and publically confirmed its commitment to NATO. To Turkey, relations with other nations, even those opposed to NATO, aren’t necessarily contradictory. As Turkey’s quest to join the EU has gone nowhere, other options, like BRICS, are explored. Managing Turkey’s future in NATO may be a challenge but it’s one worth taking on. 

 

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