Military

Is Ukraine Ever Going to Make It Into NATO?

Austin Smith

Published: September 5, 2024 10:30 am

Key Points:

• NATO Membership Unclear: Ukraine won’t join NATO during the ongoing conflict.
• Political Shifts: Changes in member countries’ politics may decrease support for Ukraine.
• Growing Skepticism: Domestic concerns in NATO countries add uncertainty to Ukraine’s future.
• While the defense sector is capturing attention in 2025, the smart money is already looking to “the next Nvidia” for 2025’s biggest winners. Access the report for free now.

Austin and Michael explore the challenges Ukraine faces in its pursuit of NATO membership, drawing parallels to the strategic ambiguity seen in U.S. policy toward Taiwan. They discuss how Ukraine’s path to NATO is complicated by the internal politics of member nations, such as Germany, where growing right-wing skepticism could slow or halt military aid to Ukraine. The conversation highlights that while there is implicit support for Ukraine, the shifting political landscapes across Europe and the U.S. make it uncertain whether Ukraine can navigate these complexities to join NATO, especially while the conflict with Russia continues.

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Edited Video Transcript:

And when you have this federation of countries that all have their own internal political dynamics, you know, it’s almost as if the stars have to align for Ukraine to be admitted.

You know, hearing you talk about Ukraine being admitted to NATO as sort of a eventually or but we’re not sure when.

It strikes some similar tones with the strategic ambiguity that the U.S. has taken towards Taiwan.

Not to say that they’re not perfect analogies, but this idea of, you know, we implicitly support this, but we’re not going to be specific about what that support means.

It has to be challenging for Ukraine.

And not to say that Ukraine was without its issues.

And, you know, Merkel’s stance that corruption may have kept Ukraine out of NATO initially.

Not to pass judgment on that as being true or false, but how is Ukraine supposed to navigate this environment when you have all of these different countries with their internal politics changing the temperature on appetite for supporting Ukraine, appetite for focusing on internal politics?

How is Ukraine supposed to get to NATO in this environment?

Is it even possible?

Yeah, again, it’s really up in the air.

As long as the conflict’s going on, they will not be admitted into NATO.

That is probably the only certainty that we have.

We talked about internal politics.

Germany was the second largest donator of military aid, but some right-wing parties have made some traction.

AFD, I think they’re called, and another one who are quite skeptical and they said they’re going to hold up eight packages.

So I think Germany’s aid to Ukraine is going to slow down and possibly be cut off.

And that might ultimately determine the outcome of the war of internal politics of the countries that Ukraine really relies on for support.

If the skepticism grows and again, people aren’t terribly patient, they’re more concerned with what’s going on in their own country.

And it’s hard to continuously send money abroad when you’re going through your own difficulties.

You know, we saw a lot of that kind of rhetoric here in the United States in the last couple of years has been a lot more skepticism.

So, yeah, it’s really up in the air.

You can’t really make any definitive predictions.

Right.