Military

Turkey’s Balancing Act: NATO, BRICS, and a Complex Foreign Policy

Austin Smith

Published: September 7, 2024 8:30 am

Key Points:

• Turkey’s interest in BRICS complicates its NATO relationship but focuses more on economics than security.
• Controversial actions, like buying Russian defense systems, have strained Turkey’s ties with NATO.
• Despite issues, Turkey’s strategic importance makes it vital for NATO to maintain strong relations.
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The potential implications if Turkey were to join BRICS, an organization aimed at countering Western economic dominance, while still being a NATO member. It suggests that Turkey might be trying to maintain economic ties with BRICS countries, like Russia, while relying on NATO for security, reflecting a balancing act between conflicting alliances. Turkey’s actions, such as purchasing Russian air defense systems and making contentious diplomatic statements, have created tensions within NATO. Despite these challenges, Turkey’s strategic importance, military strength, and contributions to NATO make it a valuable ally that the alliance aims to retain, as losing Turkey would mean losing critical geographic and military advantag

Turkey’s Potential Move Toward BRICS and Its Impact on NATO

• Turkey has shown interest in joining BRICS, an economic coalition designed to counter Western economic dominance, which includes Russia.
• This creates a potential conflict of interest, as Turkey is also a NATO member, an alliance largely opposed to Russian aggression.
• BRICS is primarily an economic grouping, not a security alliance, allowing Turkey to maintain economic ties with non-NATO-friendly nations while relying on NATO for security.

Turkey’s Strategy: Having It Both Ways

• Turkey’s approach mirrors its strategy during World War II, maintaining alliances with both sides to benefit from each while avoiding direct military conflict.
• Turkey appears to be positioning itself to form economic links with a broader range of countries, especially as its bid to join the EU remains unsuccessful.
• This strategy allows Turkey to stay connected to conflicting parties, waiting to see how geopolitical tensions play out before fully committing to one side.

Diplomatic Missteps and Tensions Within NATO

• Turkey’s decision to purchase Russian S-400 air defense systems over U.S. Patriot missiles led to significant tensions with the U.S., resulting in Turkey’s expulsion from the F-35 program and U.S. sanctions.
• Controversial comments from Turkish leaders, such as potential intervention in the Gaza conflict, have also created friction within NATO.
• There have been calls from some NATO members, such as Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders, for Turkey to be expelled from NATO, highlighting internal disagreements.

The Importance of Maintaining Turkey as a NATO Ally

• Turkey holds a vital geographic location and is strategically important, with the second-largest military in NATO and a growing defense industry.
• Despite its complicated relationship with NATO, Turkey has met its obligations and remains outwardly committed to the alliance.
• NATO benefits significantly from Turkey’s military and economic contributions and its strategic position, making it essential to maintain Turkey as an ally.

Conclusion: A Complex But Necessary Relationship

• While the relationship between Turkey and NATO is challenging, both sides gain significant benefits from the alliance.
• Turkey’s balancing act between BRICS, NATO, and other potential alliances reflects its flexible foreign policy and desire to maintain multiple strategic options.
• Preserving Turkey’s membership in NATO is crucial to the alliance’s overall strength, despite the ongoing disagreements and diplomatic challenges.