Key Points:

• F-16s are ideal for Ukraine, but pilot training is a major bottleneck.
• Ukraine’s pilot pipeline is limited, with only about 20 pilots being trained this year.
• Training and maintaining F-16s require time, resources, and infrastructure, which can’t be rushed.
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Austin and Michael discuss the complexities of deploying F-16s to Ukraine, highlighting the challenges beyond just acquiring the aircraft. Michael explains that the most significant issue is the lack of trained pilots, which takes years to develop. Despite efforts to expand the training pipeline, only a limited number of Ukrainian pilots are being trained each year. Additionally, the logistical support required for F-16s, including maintenance and ground crews, is also crucial and cannot be rushed. They draw historical parallels, such as the RAF’s long-term pilot training during World War II, to emphasize the importance of planning for the long haul. Austin notes the tragic loss of one of Ukraine’s first F-16 pilots, underscoring the irreplaceable value of experienced pilots and the ongoing challenges Ukraine faces in building its air force.

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Edited Video Transcript:

So those are really excellent points.

And there’s, correct me if I’m wrong, there’s also another hobbling factor.

So we’ve talked a lot about how the F-16 is a perfect fit for Ukraine’s needs at this point.

We now understand why this fifty-year-old Swiss Army knife jet is such a perfect fit for them and why they’ve been so insistent on receiving them.

But we’ve talked about the controversies that prevented that.

But let’s say even if we can get past those and people want to give F-16s to Ukraine en masse, what are the problems that are preventing them from being deployed at scale as it relates to pilots?

Yes, that is the most valuable part of an air force is not the aircraft, but the person who controls it.

So we can actually draw on a lot of historical lessons here.

But the point is, even if NATO members snap their fingers and sent a hundred—Ukraine wants a hundred and thirty F-16s—I think they need more like two hundred and fifty to have a significant impact.

But even if those aircraft arrive tomorrow, you still need someone to pilot them.

And that is not something that can be rushed.

It takes years to become an efficient combat pilot.

Ukraine does not have years, but at least six months of intensive training.

Now, the biggest problem Ukraine has right now is its pilot pipeline.

It’s far too narrow.

Only about twenty pilots are going to be trained in the F-16 this year.

There are just limited spots available.

So some Ukrainian pilots did training in Arizona.

Some in the UK, they did their basic flight training and they’re moving to France to complete it.

There was a training center in Romania opened up, I believe, in October of twenty-three.

So there are efforts to expand the pilot pipeline, but ultimately it cannot be rushed.

And the limitations of space is available abroad and the resources that it requires.

And we should also remember, it’s not just the pilots, it’s maintenance and ground crews.

So every F-16 has a long logistical tail involved.

So they need a lot of spare parts, they need a lot of training in proper maintenance and care.

So those are all really, really important things that simply cannot be rushed.

And we should also remember that every pilot lost, you can replace an F-16 fairly easily in the grand scheme of things, but you absolutely cannot replace pilots when they’re lost in combat.

You know, you lose that experience, you lose that training.

And even if you have another pilot ready to go, you know, that person simply does not have that level of expertise.

So it’s irreplaceable.

So I mentioned historical lesson.

I’ll give a good example here.

In World War II, the RAF and the German Air Force, the Luftwaffe, fought intensely in the summer of nineteen forty.

Now, the British took a long-term approach to their pilot pipeline.

So when you have a global spanning empire, you can train pilots well out of harm’s way in your dominion.

So Canada, South Africa, Australia, New Zealand had an ongoing pilot training program to continue to help the British.

And the other thing the British had was any nation that had been defeated by Germany, a lot of the pilots fled to the UK and continued to fly for the RAF.

So when people talk about the Battle of Britain, what I think a lot of people aren’t aware of is that a huge portion of the pilots that saved Britain in the summer of nineteen forty were not actually British.

So just taking that long-term approach.

Now, the Germans didn’t do the same thing.

The Luftwaffe was kind of an all-around air force in the early part of the war, did very well, but they weren’t in it for the long haul.

And as fuel shortages became critical, they were not able to train the new batch of pilots to the same standards as the old.

So even though the Germans actually had some of the most advanced aircraft of World War II, the first jet engines, for example, they simply did not have pilots of the quality needed to remain competitive in the later stages of the war.

So the point is, you have to think long term when you are building an air force, and it’s not something that can be rushed.

And I really appreciate that historical example.

And we actually see that repeated forward today.

I think it was one of the very first Ukrainian pilots, a moonfish, died in an accident before.

I’m sure he had a meaningful contribution to the Air Force.

And obviously, it was a big watershed moment to have F-16s for Ukraine.

But to have a pilot who you invested so much in die so early in conflict before they were able to take multiple missions on the plane just shows how important this pilot development pipeline is.

And of course, our thoughts go out to the pilot’s families.

But it just further underscores the challenges.

It’s not just getting the planes, right?

You need to have the pilots, and you need to have the infrastructure to support them.

And these things cannot be rushed, given how complicated and expensive and important these aircraft can be.

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