Key Points:

• The prolonged Ukraine conflict risks becoming a “never-ending war.”
• Ukraine uses innovative tactics, while Russia relies on attrition.
• Strikes on Russian targets may extend the war as Russia adapts.
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Austin and Michael discuss the potential for the Ukraine-Russia conflict to turn into a never-ending war. Michael explains that a never-ending war is characterized by the impossibility of achieving military victory and the lack of a serious threat of losing. However, he argues that the Ukraine-Russia conflict is more likely to be a protracted war because Russia still has the military capability to win, albeit through a strategy of attrition. They also talk about Ukraine’s recent strike on a Russian ammunition depot and how such actions, while impactful, might inadvertently prolong the conflict by forcing Russia to adapt its strategy.

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Edited Video Transcript:

[00:00:00] Austin Smith: So let’s take the conversation beyond continuing for multiple years and look to what could be beyond that, which is a never ending war. What is a never ending war? Does this have the potential to be a never ending war? Let’s say Western support is stays on long enough. That, Ukraine can continue to fight and that their population can support a never ending war.

[00:00:19] Austin Smith: What would that look like?

[00:00:20] Michael Muir: Yeah yeah, as you point out, we should be clear what we mean by, forever, never ending war. Of course, that’s not literal. All wars do come to an end someday. And there’s some semantic arguments to be had, but I think we can Say there are two key factors that determine a so called never ending or forever war.

[00:00:39] Michael Muir: The first one is the impossibility of achieving victory through military means. That could be that there’s simply not an objective to capture or an opposing army, a regular standing opposing army to destroy or it’s just not possible to do but the second key aspect is that the belligerence involved in the war isn’t in serious danger of losing either.

[00:01:01] Michael Muir: So it’s just this endless grind. But does Ukraine, Russia fall under that category? I don’t think it actually does. I would class it as a protracted war rather than a never ending war. Simply because Russia does have the military means to win, whether or not they will. Of course. We’ll find out. But this strategy of attrition is designed to grind down Ukraine’s industry and manpower to the point where they’re forced to capitulate whether there’s no guarantee.

[00:01:29] Michael Muir: Of course, they will. But it is possible. But then we also have to look at the outcomes that Ukraine desires that Russia desires. You talked earlier about Zelensky’s four point peace plan, which we don’t have the specific details of right now. But I think we can deduce that is a contracted version of his earlier 10 point peace plan, which was proposed in 2022.

[00:01:53] Michael Muir: The key aspects of that would be the future future security guarantees. Obviously, they don’t want this to happen again. So what could that look like? That’s probably membership of NATO. Other aspects like that return of territory that’s currently occupied by Russia. That’s going to be a huge sticking point in any negotiations which I think is one of the reasons, one of the reasonings behind the Kursk incursion is to have that bargaining chip.

[00:02:17] Michael Muir: I don’t think Ukraine has any serious ambitions to hold that indefinitely. It’s just they spotted a weak point that took advantage of it. And that has been one of the. Aspects of why this war has gone on so long is Ukraine isn’t fighting a passive war. They’ve shown a lot of Ingenuity and imagination in prosecuting this war whereas Russia’s this very plodding grinding attritional Strategy, which is making some slow gains in the east But as ukraine is showing a willingness to really strike at the heart of the russian war machine and attack weak points Russia is having to respond to those for russia, we’re not it’s actually not as clear as You As we would think what they’re actually hoping to gain from this conflict there has been different analysis of what the, the rationale behind the invasion in the first place.

[00:03:03] Michael Muir: So we hear things like, NATO expansion, denazifying Ukraine, that goes stems back to a conversation we had a little while ago about the history. And, just invoking this kind of myth about from World War 2 about Ukraine’s role, in operation Barbarossa in the invasion of the Soviet Union.

[00:03:22] Michael Muir: But I think that the opaque nature of Russia’s war aims is almost deliberate. It gives Putin some flexibility in how we can claim a favorable outcome of the war. So is it limited objectives? Is it complete victory? Is it setting up a buffer zone in Eastern Ukraine? Is it fully annexing Eastern Ukraine and Crimea?

[00:03:41] Michael Muir: It remains to be seen. So I’d say there’s probably a bit more flexibility on the Russian side about what they’ll accept. Ukraine is a bit more certain than what they want from this conflict. So right now we’re still a long way apart for both sides, which is why the war is going on so long.

[00:03:56] Michael Muir: And again, you mentioned Ukraine strikes within Russian territory. Hitting the artillery depot. I think that was just in the last couple of days. So Ukraine and. They do have some medium range munitions and their negotiations get long range munitions, which is going to open up a whole host of strategic targets within Russia that they could strike at.

[00:04:13] Michael Muir: They could really do a lot of damage to the Russian war machine, really slow things down, but equally, Russia’s ramping up its military. So again, this work could end tomorrow. I don’t think it will. I don’t think it will end next year either. But I would hesitate to offer a prediction as to when it’s going to come to an end, but Russia is certainly hoping to eventually win.

[00:04:33] Austin Smith: As both sides are, you had mentioned the strike on the ammunition depot, which is such an interesting facet here, by all means, an impressive and meaningful blow by Ukraine to Russia. I saw some estimates that there was a 70 month shell supply in that depot. Now that’s not verified.

[00:04:48] Austin Smith: We don’t know if that’s the case, but just based on the scale of the explosion. We know it’s a lot, but in an odd way, when you take that much inventory offline for Russia, a country that has shown a willingness and almost a preference for an attritional war strategy, it almost means that the war could just last longer.

[00:05:05] Austin Smith: Maybe Russia slows down and then they revamp production further. further inland where Ukrainian drones or missiles can’t strike, I don’t want to say this plays to Russia’s advantage. It doesn’t, but by slowing down Russia, you almost increase the likelihood that this becomes a never ending war.

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