Military

China Is Watching Russia's Failures

Austin Smith

Published: September 27, 2024 9:30 am

Last Updated: November 3, 2024 4:46 pm

Key Points:

• China is learning from Russia’s challenges in Ukraine, focusing on better preparation and backup plans.
• Asymmetric warfare, like Ukraine’s drone use, could influence China’s Taiwan strategy.
• Predictable invasion points and the importance of intelligence are key considerations for China.
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Austin and Michael discuss the potential parallels between the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a possible China-Taiwan conflict. They explore how the lessons from Ukraine, such as the failure of Russia’s early strategies and the effectiveness of asymmetrical warfare, might influence China’s approach to Taiwan. Michael suggests that while the ongoing war in Ukraine may not directly impact China’s decision-making, it underscores the importance of having multiple backup plans and thorough preparation for any military action. The conversation also touches on how Taiwan might use similar strategies to Ukraine, leveraging intelligence and unconventional tactics to counter a more powerful adversary.

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Edited Video Transcript:

[00:00:00] Austin Smith: Now, when we talk about outside support, my mind immediately goes to the potential for a China Taiwan conflict. We’ve talked about this before and in many ways. Is Ukraine a dry run, so to speak, for a major Western power trying to conquer another territory backed by another major Western power?

[00:00:16] Austin Smith: I know it’s not a perfect analogy, but it’s close enough. It, does the Ukraine, does the length of the Ukraine war and the fact that Russia’s early Shock and awe, early dominance, decapitation strategy, that the failure of that Is how does that change the expectation with China and Taiwan in the map there?

[00:00:34] Michael Muir: Sure. Yeah, as you mentioned I think China’s going to want to learn from this experience. I think, if the war continues in Ukraine for years, I don’t think that’s going to have a huge bearing on how China, may or may not choose to its claim in Taiwan. There’s this thought, is the U.

[00:00:52] Michael Muir: S. Army going to be the U. S. military, excuse me, going to be distracted or overstretched by this. But if we really get into the details of some of these aid packages that are going out to Ukraine, a lot of the money that’s is going out there is really just to replenish stocks of munitions. So it’s not really leaving the United States.

[00:01:08] Michael Muir: So I don’t think that’s going to have a big bearing on how the United States might play out. Respond to tensions in Taiwan. I think, Beijing was perfectly aware that any kind of invasion of Taiwan is going to be a gigantic risk. But I think the war in Ukraine has probably really underlined that the importance of a solid plan and a backup plan and probably a backup plan for that backup plan.

[00:01:31] Michael Muir: Thorough preparation, a proper strategy And an naval invasion, quick victories are not really on the cards. You have to establish the beachhead and push forward and the terrain doesn’t really allow for that, but I think, there are a lot of lessons I think that can be applied from this conflict and from, history as well.

[00:01:51] Michael Muir: I think our main point of reference there would be the the Pacific Theater of World War ii, which I think is what we’re gonna move on to next.

[00:01:57] Austin Smith: Yeah, I would love to I, I’d love to move on to that, but just to pause a beat there. Maybe just hypothesizing some of the things that China might be observing and learning about the Ukraine, Russia conflict, that could change the nature of a Taiwan reclamation project the power of asymmetry.

[00:02:12] Austin Smith: We’ve seen how effective Ukrainian forces have been against the Russian fleet in the Black Sea. Despite the fact that Ukraine really doesn’t have a fleet that is one of the major features that China has an advantage over Taiwan, but maybe that benefit is overstated in a world of, aquatic drones and.

[00:02:28] Austin Smith: Just how effective Ukraine has utilized them. Obviously drones are a learning curve for both sides here with both Russia and Ukraine using them. We would expect that to be part of a China, Taiwan conflict. There’s probably also a major intelligence gap that it seems like China would need to fill.

[00:02:44] Austin Smith: Now, not to speak to the sophistication of Russia versus Chinese intelligence. But it would seem that in the Ukraine conflict, Ukraine has done disproportionately well by being slightly more aware of Russia’s movements and vice versa. They’ve been able to intercept troop movements. They’ve been able to be more effective on the informational side of this, which has helped their asymmetry.

[00:03:03] Austin Smith: So if you’re China, you have to be looking at those and anticipating that Taiwan playing a role of Ukraine in that equivalent conflict. Is would be utilizing the same playbook. Is that fair?

[00:03:14] Michael Muir: Yeah, I’d say so. And, again, naval invasion. So there is no element of surprise here, right? And there are only about a dozen or so landing sites where they could ultimately choose so called red beaches.

[00:03:27] Michael Muir: So they’re not going to be. able to let, they’re not going to be able to do anything terribly unexpected here. That’s going to limit their options. Even without sophisticated intelligence, it’s really not going to take a genius to anticipate where the PLA are going to ultimately choose to land.