Key Points:

• Porcupine Defense: Taiwan uses a mix of weapons to inflict damage on invaders.
• Terrain Advantage: Shallow waters and barriers can delay the Chinese Navy.
• Cost-Effective: Inexpensive defenses like drones and mines are key.
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Michael and Austin discuss Taiwan’s defense strategy against a potential Chinese invasion, focusing on the “porcupine strategy,” which involves using a variety of high-tech and low-tech weapons to inflict damage on an invading force. They highlight the importance of delaying tactics, such as mining coastal waters and using barriers, to buy time for U.S. intervention. The conversation also touches on the cost-effectiveness of defensive weapons like javelins, stingers, and drones, emphasizing the need for a multifaceted, asymmetric approach to defense.

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Edited Video Transcript:

But what techniques or what tools would Taiwan use to defend against China?

Sure.

Taiwan’s general approach is the porcupine strategy.

So if we imagine the quills of a porcupine as lots of different types of weapons, not all high-tech, some lower-tech stuff, things like javelins and stingers, long-range, medium-range munitions, all forming part of the whole.

So the…

As I say, the porcupine defense is based on lots and lots of different points of inflicting pain on any invading force.

So it’s a variety of things, but there are also some really inexpensive and low-tech options that Taiwan might want to pursue.

Again, terrain is very favorable to Taiwan in this scenario.

The coastal waters around the island are really shallow, which means that they could mine the approaches.

Just for a fraction of the cost, they could significantly delay the PLA Navy.

That is a weakness that the Chinese Navy has is they don’t have a huge amount of ships that are dedicated to mine clearing.

And the most important thing for Taiwan in the first twenty four to thirty six hours is delay, delay, delay so that the United States can intervene.

So mines could play a really important role.

Even just man-made barriers, just throwing them up really quickly.

Another thing, maybe a little more unorthodox, this was something that the Union did during the American Civil War, is they bought up a lot of old obsolete barges and stored them.

And their plan was, if the Confederacy threatened Washington DC, is they were just going to take them out and sink them to block the approach on the Potomac River.

So I wonder if Taiwan might consider something like that, just buy up a bunch of old ships, scuttle them, and just create indefinite delays.

To the PLA.

And again, another aspect of terrain that’s very favorable, there are only certain times of the year when a crossing of the Taiwan Strait is viable for a large force.

So they could buy days, weeks, possibly even months if they’re sufficiently imaginative and determined.

And these are not expensive options.

You know, they’re very cost-effective.

You know, mines can be deployed today.

They can be employed by ships, which could be vulnerable to Chinese munitions, but they can be deployed by aircraft.

They can be deployed by drones.

They can be deployed by submarines.

So the point is get as many of them out as possible, as quickly as possible, and just buy time for U.S. forces to help.

To put some specifics that just to contextualize for listeners, you talked about javelins and stingers, also mines and ships.

Javelins and stingers cost one hundred to two hundred thousand dollars, give or take each.

So those are big dollars for individuals.

But for a military defending their nation, they’re nothing.

You know, those are even below table stakes.

So being able to purchase high quantities of defensive missiles, the porcupine quills analogy for one hundred thousand dollars each makes it very easy to purchase a lot and to have a very, very prickly porcupine.

Yeah, and drones as well.

Of course, they’re becoming increasingly less expensive.

Could be vulnerable to cyber attacks, and China has invested quite a lot in that aspect.

But just as I said, a multifaceted, asymmetric approach to buy as much time as possible, to make things as difficult as possible, and then just buy time for U.S. intervention, I think is ultimately what Taiwan needs to do.

I don’t know if its ground forces today are strong enough.

I think that’s something they’re going to have to invest in.

But they have favorable terrain.

They’ve got a pretty good navy.

They can’t go toe-to-toe with the Chinese navy, but if they do the sort of convoy raiding, hit and run, they’ve got a lot of corvettes that are very difficult to detect with long-range munitions.

They can inflict a lot of harm that way.

But if they take a realistic, imaginative, determined approach, and with American intervention, I think the odds are favorable that they can successfully repel an invasion.

To be sure, it would be extremely difficult, extremely costly, and they’re going to have to endure, you know, and make huge sacrifices.

But if they’re suitably determined, I think just the combination of factors with American intervention, I think they can be somewhat confident of success.

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