Defense spending is rising globally but money isn’t the only factor in a nation’s military strength. Each year Global Firepower releases the Global Firepower Index which tracks the military efficacy of the world’s nations. Where some states rise, others must fall. This article looks at the countries whose militaries have dropped in rankings and explains the reasons why. 

Why This Matters

Year-on-year comparisons can be difficult but they help provide a glimpse in the global balance of power. The United States is still the world’s top military power but some key allies are struggling with political and economic problems. It’s important to know where these weaknesses lie.

United Kingdom

2023 rank: 5th

2024 rank: 6th

Defense budget: $76.38 billion

The United Kingdom is the second-biggest spender in NATO and the largest in Europe but its military strength is declining. Years of severe austerity and navigating the post-Brexit economy mean the UK’s economic outlook is bleak. A report concluded that the Ministry of Defence (MoD) cannot afford its existing equipment plan for 2023-33.

The MoD also has difficulties maintaining and ultimately replacing its costly nuclear deterrent. The British Armed Forces declined by around 3% from 2023 to 2024, a drop of just under 6,000 service personnel. There are plans to arrest this decline but Britain’s financial woes will constrain how much investment can be made in its armed forces. 

Pakistan

2023 rank: 7th

2024 rank: 9th

Defense budget: $6.27 billion

Pakistan’s military power belies its weak economy and extremely low GDP per capita. With 170 nuclear warheads, Pakistan’s high ranking mostly comes from its ballistics and large standing army (the sixth-largest). Former president Zulfikar Ali Bhutto once remarked in 1965 that his people would eat “grass and leaves” if it meant getting nuclear weapons. 

The military is the dominant force in Pakistani politics and a drain on its underdeveloped economy. With worsening relations with the United States and a deteriorating political situation at home, Pakistan has some tough choices ahead. 

France

2023 rank: 10th

2024 rank: 11th

Defense budget: $52.56 billion

France was one of several NATO members to hit the 2% defense spending goal in 2024. However, the boost in military spending comes at a time when France is running a steep deficit, considerably higher than earlier projections. Maintaining high military spending while cutting back elsewhere will be difficult to maintain amid such sharp political divisions.

France is downsizing its military presence in Africa to around 600 troops, down from over 6000 two years ago. The French military has a major problem with recruitment and retention. 

Egypt

2023 rank: 14th

2024 rank: 15th

Budget: $9.4 billion (including US aid)

The most populous nation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Egypt’s military strength is a source of economic weakness. The military overthrew the democratically-elected president Mohamed Morsi in 2013, after just over a year in power. Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, former head of the Egyptian armed forces and current president, seized power in 2014. 

The military has a stranglehold on Egypt’s economy and profits handsomely from major construction projects like the New Administrative Capital being constructed near Cairo. Geopolitical events like the war in Ukraine (Egypt relies on Russia and Ukraine for wheat) and the war between Hamas and Israel have seen the Egyptian pound plummet in value. Attacks on Red Sea shipping by the Houthi have plunged revenue from the Suez Canal by 44% from last year.

Accordingly, Egypt’s military strength is weakening but, thanks to its key geopolitical position, loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are still coming in. For global trade, Egypt is essentially “too big to fail.”

Ukraine

2023 rank: 15th

2024 rank: 19th

Defense budget: $40 billion

Almost three years into a war that was supposed to last a few days, Ukraine’s dogged resistance confounded analyst’s predictions of a short war. Still, there’s no denying holding off the Russian onslaught for long has taken a huge toll on Ukraine and its military is weaker for it. Its GDP plunged almost 30% in the first year. With limited domestic industry and manpower, Kyiv’s continued survival depends heavily on support from the West. 

Unfortunately for Ukraine, domestic politics in key donor countries have swayed away from Kyiv and the rate of arms has slowed significantly. The United States sent four crucial aid packages in 2022 but none the following year. Other nations struggled to fill that funding gap though incoming new weapons may help tilt the balance once more.

Ukraine’s biggest problem is it can’t sustain heavy casualties for long. The average age of the armed forces defending Ukraine is 40-43 – much older than most militaries. A new controversial conscription law lowered the age limit. However, another key issue is rotating the troops already serving out of combat as soldiers need time out of combat to recover. Ukraine has the will to fight but without renewed and sustained support, won’t be able to continue indefinitely. 

Conclusion

With increased global military spending, staying ahead of the competition is much more difficult. There are different underlying causes for a decline in military strength but they are most likely to be economic and political. Britain is still a big spender in regional terms but its small military is overstretched and the post-Brexit situation limits further investment. Similarly, France has pulled back from Africa and is struggling to meet its obligations. The militaries of Egypt and Pakistan certainly don’t lack prominence but have major systemic issues to overcome. Ukraine is feeling the effects of a sustained conflict with a damaged but still powerful adversary.

 

Thank you for reading! Have some feedback for us?
Contact the 24/7 Wall St. editorial team.