The world is understandably concerned about North Korea’s growing nuclear capabilities and Iran’s on-again, off-again progress toward its own bomb. But few people realize that quite a few American allies are only a “screwdriver’s turn” away from their own nuclear weapons. And in some situations the only reason they don’t take the plunge is that we have already given them nuclear weapons. Yes you read that right. Jump into this fascinating topic with us and see if you think American foreign policy is helping or hurting non-proliferation efforts. 

24/7 Wall St. Insights

• Nine countries currently have nuclear weapons but many more have the technological capability to build them quickly if they wanted to. 
• The United States has given nuclear weapons to several allies to prevent them from seeking their own nuclear deterrents.
• Also: Discover “the Next Nvidia”

The Nine Current Nuclear Weapons States

Nine countries are widely known to have nuclear weapons, although some have not publicly admitted it. Here is a run-down of their nuclear programs.

United States

• First test: 1945
• Total warheads: 5,044
• Delivery methods: land, sea, air
• Note: The U.S. built the world’s first atomic bombs and was the only country ever to use them in war, dropping two on Japan to end World War II. 

Russia

• First test: 1949
• Total warheads: 5,580
• Delivery methods: land, sea, air
• Note: Russia’s progress toward an atomic bomb was greatly accelerated by spying efforts on the U.S. program. Russia eventually tested the largest nuclear weapon ever built, the Tsar Bomba. 

United Kingdom

• First test: 1952
• Total warheads: 225
• Delivery methods: sea
• Note: British Prime Minister Winston Churchill thought the U.S. should drop an atomic bomb on Moscow to defeat the Soviets before they could build a bomb of their won. The U.S. is thought to have shared nuclear technology with the U.K. to accelerate their progress toward a nuclear bomb.

France

• First test: 1960
• Total warheads: 290
• Delivery methods: sea, air
• Note: France conducted its own nuclear tests in the Algerian Sahara and in the South Pacific.

Israel

• First test: 1963?
• Total warheads: 75-400?
• Delivery methods: unknown
• Note: France assisted the Israeli nuclear program, reportedly allowing them to participate in France’s nuclear tests and share data so they would not have to carry out their own independent tests. Israel’s program is intended as a deterrence and last-ditch defense against hostile Arab neighbors. 

China

• First test: 1964
• Total warheads: 500
• Delivery methods: land, sea, air
• Note: China likely had assistance from the Soviet Union to build its own nuclear bombs. Having fought the U.S. in the Korean war and seeing increasing levels of intervention from the U.S. in Vietnam, China wanted a strong deterrent.

India

• First test: 1974
• Total warheads: 172
• Delivery methods: land, sea, air
• Note: India has rivalries with two of its neighbors: China and Pakistan. It fought brief border wars with China that cost it some of its territory in the Himalayas, as well as four wars with Pakistan and numerous border skirmishes. It sees nuclear weapons as an essential deterrent. 

Pakistan

• First test: 1998
• Total warheads: 170
• Delivery methods: land, sea, air
• Note: Pakistan is the first Muslim country to develop a nuclear arsenal. It did so in response to its rival India’s nuclear program. Allegedly, Saudi Arabia helped fund the Pakistani program in an arrangement that would make nuclear weapons available to the Saudis in the event that they were under attack. 

North Korea

• First test: 2006
• Total warheads: 80-90
• Delivery methods: land, air
• Note: North Korea launched a disastrous attack on South Korea in 1950. The U.S. and its allies came to the defense of the South, while China invaded to shore up the North. The whole debacle destroyed both countries without making many changes to the original border. North Korea has developed nuclear weapons and long-range missiles to deter the United States from attacking it in the future and to be able to overcome the South quickly in any future war. 

The U.S. Is Sharing Nukes With 5 Countries

The United States has shared nuclear weapons with some of its non-nuclear NATO allies. Host countries participate with the U.S. in war planning for the use of these weapons, maintain warplanes and other technical equipment for the maintenance and delivery of nuclear weapons to their targets, and train for their own armed forces to carry out nuclear attacks using American weapons. The U.S. Air Force guards the weapons and they cannot be detonated without launch codes provided by the United States. These are the countries the U.S. is currently sharing nukes with:

• Belgium
• Germany
• Italy
• Netherlands
• Turkey

Russia Is Sharing Nukes with One Country

Russia is currently sharing nuclear weapons with Belarus, though it is certain that Russia retains control of their use. Russia made the decision to deploy nukes to Belarus as an intimidation tactic in its war in Ukraine and as a deterrent to Ukrainian or NATO military action against Belarus. Notably, Russian troops and aircraft have used Belorussian territory to stage attacks on Ukraine. Russia and Belarus are joined in an international association called the “Union State” that is widely seen as a creeping annexation of Belarus by its gigantic neighbor. 

Will Poland Get Nukes?

Russia has deployed some of its nuclear weapons to two regions to Poland’s east and west: Belarus and the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea. On Poland’s southeastern border lies Ukraine, which is currently under attack by Russia. As a NATO ally, Poland has been in talks with the United States about joining the nuclear weapons-sharing program and hosting American weapons on their soil, but no agreement has been reached yet. 

Nuclear Latent Countries

Nuclear latent countries have the technological capabilities in place to develop nuclear weapons within months to a few years if they make the decision to do so. How soon? Experts often remark that Japan, for example, is likely just “a screwdriver’s turn” away from testing its own bomb if it wanted to. There are at least 7 nuclear latent countries in the world, all but one of which are closely allied to the United States.

• Australia: a close ally with a bilateral defense treaty with the U.S.
• Brazil: a friendly country that is part of the Rio Treaty with the U.S.
• Canada: America’s neighbor and closest friend, allied in NATO.
• Germany: A NATO ally.
• Japan: an ally with a bilateral dfense treaty with the U.S. 
• Netherlands: A NATO ally.
• South Africa: A neutral country that is not a formal U.S. ally, but not an enemy either. 

Nuclear Threshold Countries

“Nuclear threshold” countries have the technology to be considered nuclear latent, but beyond that they have serious security problems that may easily motivate them to build their own nuclear weapons. Three countries fall into this category: 2 American allies and one enemy

• South Korea: an ally with U.S. troops stationed as a deterrent to prevent nuclear-armed North Korea from attacking.
• Taiwan: the U.S. doesn’t have a public, formal alliance with Taiwan, but sells large amounts of arms to Taiwan to help it defend itself from potential Chinese attack, and has warned China to leave it alone.
• Iran: an implacable foe of the United States and its allies Israel and the Arab Persian Gulf states. Iran has actively worked on improving its nuclear technology and stockpiled supplies related to its nuclear program, but has not broken out to test a weapon yet out of fear of an attack by Israel and the United States. 

Countries That Got Rid of Nukes

Sometimes countries reverse themselves and withdraw from nuclear weapons sharing or developing their own. Here are some examples.

Countries That Withdrew From Nuclear Sharing

Canada and Greece are two countries that were formerly part of NATO’s nuclear weapons sharing program but no longer are. While stationing nuclear weapons in a country is supposed to protect it, this can be a double-edged sword. It can make the country more of a target for nuclear attack to eliminate the weapons stored there before they can be used. And in countries with a strong peace movement, if word gets out it can cause a lot of social unrest that is a big problem to manage and makes the government look bad.

Countries That Gave Up Nuclear Weapons

Four countries have given up nuclear weapons on their soil, and in one case dismantled an indigenous nuclear weapons program and rudimentary arsenal. 

• When Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine became independent of the Soviet Union, each of them still had nuclear weapons on their territory from the old regime. They all agreed to return those weapons to Russia rather than trying to keep them. 
• South Africa had its own nuclear weapons program and developed 6 or so crude atomic bombs in the 1980s. In 1994 F.W. de Klerk, the country’s last apartheid-era president, announced the existence of the program and that South Africa had dismantled them and destroyed the program. 

The Future of Nuclear Weapons

The number of nuclear latent countries, nuclear threshold countries, and nuclear capable countries is likely to slowly but steadily increase over time. If countries can be brought under the nuclear umbrella of the U.S. or another existing nuclear power, they can be convinced not to build their own weapons. But if America’s commitment to them seems unreliable at a time of rising tensions, then it is possible the number of nuclear weapons states will increase dramatically in a short period of time. In that case, ironically, the pursuit of security by individual countries could set off a chain reaction that will make not only them, but the entire world far less safe. 

 

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