The definition of a “superpower” is rather subjective. In the Cold War it was applied only to the United States and the Soviet Union—the two most powerful countries in the world. This despite the fact that the U.K. and France also had nuclear arsenals and the ability to deploy military force around the globe, as seen in the U.K.’s victory in the Falkland Islands War and France’s repeated interventions in North Africa. Moving into the next century, the picture will be even more murky as current powers decline and new ones rise. Here are our best predictions of which countries may be superpowers 75 years from now, in the year 2,100.

The United States: YES

Predictions that the United States will fall from its superpower status are greatly exaggerated and premature. It is one of the foremost world leaders in military and civilian technology and is likely to remain so for decades to come. Although it has fallen behind Russia and China in hypersonic missile tech and needs to modernize its land-based ICBM arsenal, it is moving ahead with research and development on 6th-generation military aircraft that will be able to perform with or without a pilot.

But What About the Trump Revolution?

The Trump administration’s unorthodox foreign policy and radical restructuring of the executive branch of government will have still unknown consequences for America’s position in the world and its economic health. Who knows? Maybe we’ll end up more globally powerful than ever before, and if he backs up his words with action, territorially the largest country in the world, surpassing Russia. But even in a worst-case scenario of American decline, nothing short of a nuclear war or continental-scale disaster could make such a powerful country be anything less than a global power 75 years from now. 

China: YES

No one will be surprised to find that China is a superpower in the 22nd century, and likely long before. Its GDP surpassed that of the United States in 2014 and is projected to rise from 16% of the global GDP to 27% by the year 2100. China has been actively investing in infrastructure projects in developing countries around the world. Militarily, it is expanding its nuclear arsenal and its naval power in the South China Sea.

Superpowers in Space

The United States and China will be in a space race in the second half of the 21st century to claim control of prime real estate for a space station on the lunar south pole, which has frozen water ice under the surface. China’s technological prowess will make it a difficult competitor to beat in space, which will be the ultimate test of which countries are superpowers. 

India: YES

India has already surpassed China as the country with the largest population. It’s also expected to rise to the top economically with an economy up to 90% larger than China’s today and 30% larger than the U.S. The population is young with an enormous number of professionals with high skill levels in STEM subjects and speaking English fluently. India is implementing reforms to stimulate investment, privatize state-owned enterprises, and simplify the taxation system. It is nuclear-armed and invests heavily in its military due to rivalries with neighboring Pakistan and China. And to top it all off, India is developing a successful space program, having already reached the Moon and Mars with unmanned probes. Superpower status by 2100? Easy shmeezy.

The European Union: NO

The European Union has a lot of the foundation for superpower status. Its 27 member countries include 450 million people and have a collective GDP of $20 trillion, the second in the world after the U.S. and about 13.4% of the global total. They spend about $342 billion dollars on defense, more than twice Russia’s current wartime defense budget of $145 billion. France has a nuclear arsenal that could be used on behalf of the Union if it chose.

European Dis-Union

Unlike the states of the United States, the countries of the European Union have genuine freedom to refuse to comply with EU policies or military activities coordinated with NATO. While many of Europe’s remaining countries are eager to join, others, like the UK, have left or will be on their way out in the future. Europe is struggling with the rise of right-wing politicians, immigration and xenophobia, and the danger of the war in Ukraine spilling over. And on top of all that, the United States in the current administration has called into question its commitment to European security and Western values in general.

With all these problems in their own neighborhood and the rise of countries like India with larger populations and greater economic power, the EU is likely to remain a regional power, just trying to keep its own fractious house in order.  

Russia: NO

Russia has bounced back many times in its history, but we’re ready to bet this time it’s in its death spiral. Its population is rapidly shrinking from low birth rates, aging, substandard healthcare, emigration, and wartime casualties. Its current population of 144 million could shrink to as low as 74 million by 2100 according to some UN estimates. 

Russia’s Abysmal Military

This once formidable superpower’s military has performed abysmally in the Ukraine war, to such an extent that Russia has had to import weapons from Iran and North Korea and even bring over 10,000 North Korean troops to the Kursk Oblast to contain Ukraine’s offensive into Russian territory. Despite its advances in hypersonic missiles and undersea drones, Russia is dependent on technology imports that make its defense sector vulnerable to sanctions, no matter how resilient the rest of its longsuffering people may be. And it is very much a petro-state, dependent on oil exports for the lion’s share of its budget. This, too, makes it vulnerable to sanctions and to fluctuations in the oil market. 

The only thing “superpowerish” Russia has going for it now is its vast arsenal of nuclear weapons that surpass even the American stockpile. Using them would be suicidal, though, and invite immediate and devastating retaliation. Effectively then, they are useless. Russia is rapidly getting left behind demographically, technologically, and economically. Its future will likely be as a regional power and a de-facto colony of China, supplying it with raw materials in return for the technology it needs to stay afloat. 

Our Prediction

After a long conversation with our Magic 8 Ball, here’s our prediction:

• The superpowers of the 22nd century will be the US, China, and India.
• Because the preponderance of economic power will shift to Asia, the U.S. will struggle to keep up with its two rivals and would do well to get on the same page and play nice with one or both of them.
• As for Europe and Russia, they’ll have nuclear weapons and be able to defend their own territory, more or less. But they’ll be far too internally occupied for global adventures, leaving that to the countries with growing wealth and power to do so. 

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