Personal Finance

I'm Only 30 Years Old. How Accurate Is My Social Security Benefit Estimate?

Maurie Backman

Published: February 20, 2025 10:09 am

Planning for retirement isn’t something you should wait until your 40s or 50s to do. The earlier in life you start, the more likely you may be to reach your personal goals.

Meanwhile, a big part of retirement planning is figuring out what role Social Security will play in your senior income. As a general rule, you can expect those benefits to replace about 40% of your pre-retirement paycheck. But there are other variables to consider, such as whether you’re an average wager-earner or not, and what age you intend to take benefits at.

It’s a good idea to try to get a handle on what Social Security will pay you well ahead of retirement. And there’s an easy way to do that. But you should know that the younger you are, the harder it might be to get an accurate read on the future Social Security check you’re in line for.

Why your benefit estimate at 30 may not be spot-on

There’s a simple way to get a sense of what Social Security will pay you down the line. Just create an account on the Social Security Administration’s website and access your most recent earnings statement.

It will contain a summary of your recent wages, as well as a projected benefit at your full retirement age (FRA). If you’re 30 now, it means that your FRA is 67.

That said, you’ll need to take your estimated benefit with a grain of salt, and here’s why. Social Security calculates your retirement benefit based on your 35 most profitable years in the labor force. Within that formula, earlier wages are adjusted for inflation.

At age 30, most people have the majority of their careers ahead of them. And that means that your wages could take off in the next few decades, drop, or hold relatively steady.

But in the absence of a crystal ball, it’s hard to know. And without that information, it’s difficult to get an accurate read on your future Social Security benefit when you’re only 30 years old.

That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t check your earnings statements every year. It’s a good idea to do that not just to get a sneak peek at your future monthly benefit, but also, to make sure the wage data that’s on file for you is correct. But you shouldn’t necessarily count on the number you see at age 30 being the Social Security benefit you actually receive.

Plan to get most of your retirement income from savings

If you’re 30 years old now, it can clearly be a bit tricky to predict what Social Security will pay you each month in retirement. And compounding the issue is that Social Security cuts may be possible in about a decade’s time if lawmakers don’t manage to find a way to avoid them.

That’s why your best bet is to try to get the bulk of your retirement income from savings you build yourself. If you take this approach and set yourself up to be less dependent on Social Security, you shouldn’t have to worry as much about what monthly benefit you’ll get.

That said, it’s a good idea to track your estimated benefit year after year and see what changes. But generally, the closer to retirement you are, the more helpful that estimate is actually going to be.