I’m aiming to retire once I’ve saved $5 million

Raising children from cradle to adulthood can be incredibly expensive, particularly in periods of elevated inflation. And if you’re also looking at covering post-secondary expenses, you may very well be staring down a hefty six-figure sum. While there are numerous ways to chip away at the costs, prospective retirees with young children shouldn’t look to leave the workplace until they’ve accumulated more than enough to cover any potential unforeseen expenses down the road.

Who knows? Perhaps your child will want to pursue a doctorate in physics at a top-rated university or go to law school. And if you still plan to cover their educational pursuits, you may have an expenditure that could easily downgrade you from a comfortable (or chubby) early retirement to a moderate or even a lean (one that’s frugal and not at all fancy) one.

In the case of this Reddit poster, who’s trying to project expected expenses from their child from 0 to 21, they’ve got a lofty sum building up (their FIRE number is $5 million) and are forecasting expenses to rise with age. Undoubtedly, one can take all one wants to a spreadsheet, but the reality is going to be different, perhaps markedly different from the estimates.

Of course, lifestyle in one’s earlier years may be easier to forecast, but things are bound to get harder with age, especially if the child in question is keen on a career path that entails grad school. Also, healthcare remains another huge wild card that could cause expenses to exceed one’s projections.

Forecasting the distant future is difficult. Be aware of the blindspots!

Though it may be somewhat comforting for a prospective retiree to forecast expenses, I’d argue that it may be a better idea to be ready to roll with the punches as they come. Indeed, inflation, lifestyle creep, educational pursuits, and healthcare are variables that may be hard to predict over the next two decades.

As such, setting budget expectations over such an extended timeframe may be the formula for disappointment, especially if the two major wild cards (education and health) end up costing a heck of a lot more than initially forecasted.

It’s not just education and health that boast expenses that are tough to predict. It’s increasingly common for adult children to live at home for longer periods. Indeed, perhaps the Reddit poster had better be prepared for a scenario whereby they’d need to support their child financially through their mid-20s, late-20s, or even 30s. The future is hard to predict. And with rapid technological change — including advances in artificial intelligence (AI) — it’s virtually impossible to know what the economic landscape will look like two decades from now.

Given this, I’d argue the poster should be prepared to consider the costs of supporting an adult child through their 20s. Indeed, it’s never an ideal situation to envision, but one that may be increasingly realistic in a hyper-competitive world that could get even tougher with time.

The bottom line

Instead of asking how much it’ll all cost, I’d encourage the poster to ask themselves just how resilient their nest egg is and how they plan to position their retirement portfolio for growth to account for rising expenses down the line.

In any case, I believe that projecting such far-out expenses decades into the future isn’t the best use of time. Sometimes, there are uncertainties in life that we can’t clear the air on. Instead of worrying over expenses decades down the road, teaching their child good money practices earlier in life may be the Reddit poster’s best bet. Also, chatting with a wealth planner can’t hurt.

Either way, the Reddit poster seems to be in good shape, even if the costs of raising their child exceed their estimates if they can achieve their $5 million milestone.

Further, if they plan to stay invested in high-return securities (like stocks), I’d argue that their nest egg will grow at a fairly steady pace through their child’s first two decades. And even if there is a so-called “lost decade” for stock returns ahead, a robust stock portfolio could still do quite well for the Reddit poster as they look to stay retired while their child’s expenses rise with time.